#8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed
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Game History
Round: 3 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 1 artillery, 4 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco Americans take Morocco from Germans Combat - Americans Non Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Barents Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 1 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 2 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom 2 fighters moved from United States to United Kingdom 1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Libya Place Units - Americans 1 artillery and 4 infantry placed in United States 3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs -
TUV Differential / Net TUV - Round 3
After G3
Eastern Front: -39.87 / -15
Atlantic/WA: -10.83 / +4
Africa/Med: -0.51 / -6
Total: -51.21 / -17After Allied3
Eastern Front: -37.4 / -24
Atlantic/WA: -10.83 / +4
Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
Total: -53.29 / -34 -
TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 4
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 4 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 9 armour; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 armour moved from East Poland to Baltic States Germans take Baltic States from Russians 1 armour moved from Baltic States to East Poland 1 artillery and 18 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland 8 armour moved from Germany to East Poland 1 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia 1 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia 1 bomber moved from Germany to Belorussia Combat - Germans Battle in Belorussia Germans attack with 1 bomber and 1 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia Germans win, taking Belorussia from Russians with 1 bomber and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber moved from Belorussia to East Poland 1 bomber moved from East Poland to Germany Place Units - Germans 9 armour placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 36 PUs; end with 36 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : -0,67 Germans regular : -0,67 -
Game History
Round: 4 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 2 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia 1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Karelia to Belorussia Combat - Russians Battle in Belorussia Russians attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry Germans defend with 1 infantry Russians roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Belorussia Russians win, taking Belorussia from Germans with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Belorussia to Moscow 5 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow 1 artillery moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus 1 aaGun moved from Karelia to Leningrad 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from Leningrad to Russia 1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone Place Units - Russians 7 infantry placed in Moscow Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 24 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : 0.67 Russians regular : -0.50 -
Game History
Round: 4 Purchase Units - British British buy 5 artilleries and 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 artillery moved from Algeria to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to France British take France from Germans 1 infantry moved from Norway to Norwegian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Norway to Norwegian Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium British take Netherlands-Belgium from Germans Combat - British Non Combat Move - British 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia 1 armour moved from Norway to Karelia 1 destroyer and 1 transport moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from North Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France 1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France 1 armour moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow 1 armour moved from Caucasus to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Turkestan 1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Leningrad to Karelia 1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Karelia Place Units - British 5 artilleries and 4 infantry placed in United Kingdom Turn Complete - British British collect 36 PUs; end with 36 PUs -
Game History
Round: 4 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Western Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Western Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 bomber moved from Libya to Northern Italy 1 transport moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone Combat - Americans Strategic bombing raid in Northern Italy Bombing raid in Northern Italy rolls: 1 and costs: 1 PU. Bombing raid costs 1 PU Non Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to Libya 1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria 2 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France 3 destroyers moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to United Kingdom 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Karelia Place Units - Americans 3 artilleries and 3 infantry placed in United States 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 45 PUs -
TUV Differential / Net TUV - Round 4
After G4
Eastern Front: -34.4 / -21
Atlantic/WA: -10.83 / +4
Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
Total: -50.29 / -31After Allied4
Eastern Front: -32.5 / -21
Atlantic/WA: -8.33 / +3
Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
Total: -45.89 / -32 -
TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 5
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia 4 armour moved from Germany to East Poland 1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 bomber moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R. 5 fighters moved from Germany to Netherlands-Belgium 1 armour moved from Germany to Netherlands-Belgium Combat - Germans Battle in Belorussia Germans attack with 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 20/68 hits, 19,33 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia Germans win, taking Belorussia from Russians with 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Battle in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans attack with 1 bomber and 1 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 1 bomber and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Battle in Netherlands-Belgium Germans attack with 1 armour and 5 fighters British defend with 2 infantry Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 5 fighters in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 5/6 hits, 3,00 expected hits British roll dice for 2 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Netherlands-Belgium Germans win, taking Netherlands-Belgium from British with 1 armour and 5 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for British: 2 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 5 fighters moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany 1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany 3 armour moved from Germany to East Poland Place Units - Germans 11 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 37 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : -0,67 Germans regular : 2,83 British regular : -0,67 -
Odds:
Moscow: 40.05%
Berlin: 35.96% (20%-55%)
Final odds: 25,6% (18%-32%)Given the bad German dice during this game, I'd say we need to remove the infantry from Romania to make Europe completely balanced.
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Funny because the game started out quite good in Germany's favor, but it went very much downhill later in the game. I think that's because the Allies rolled a bit above average in every single naval battle, and all those small bits added up and created a massive TUV swing in the Allies' favor.
In any case, I am not a fan of the G1 I did so let's go again after this. Did you want to experiment already with one infantry from Romania removed? I am already testing this with Ragnell due to a similar bad German game that still had - at least in my opinion - decent Moscow odds.
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@victoryfirst said in #8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed:
Odds:
Moscow: 40.05%
Berlin: 35.96% (20%-55%)
Final odds: 25,6% (18%-32%)Given the bad German dice during this game, I'd say we need to remove the infantry from Romania to make Europe completely balanced.
Looks right and so I'm going to take the 85% chance the Allies take Moscow on G5.
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Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 1 bomber moved from Moscow to Germany Combat - Russians Battle in Germany Russians attack with 1 bomber Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 11 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/18 hits, 7.50 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Russians lost in Germany Germans win with 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15 Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow 1 artillery moved from Caucasus to Turkestan Place Units - Russians 8 infantry placed in Moscow Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 19 PUs; end with 19 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans AA : -0.17 Germans regular : -2.50 Russians regular : -0.67 -
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from English Channel Sea Zone: 1 armour EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from English Channel Sea Zone: 1 transport EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode British buy 5 artilleries and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Denmark: 1 armour EDIT: Changing ownership of Denmark from Germans to British EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Danish Sea Sea Zone: 1 transport EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 armour moved from Denmark to Germany 1 infantry moved from France to Eastern France British take Eastern France from Germans 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium 1 transport moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 4 artilleries, 4 infantry and 4 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 1 destroyer moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 1 bomber and 3 fighters moved from Karelia to Germany Combat - British Battle in Netherlands-Belgium British attack with 1 artillery and 4 infantry Germans defend with 1 armour British roll dice for 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits British roll dice for 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Netherlands-Belgium British win, taking Netherlands-Belgium from Germans with 1 artillery and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5 Casualties for Germans: 1 armour Battle in Germany British attack with 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 11 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/4 hits, 0.67 expected hits British roll dice for 2 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits British roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 3/15 hits, 6.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 8/18 hits, 7.50 expected hits 3 artilleries owned by the British and 5 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany British roll dice for 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 fighters in Germany, round 3 : 2/7 hits, 3.33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 9 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 9/15 hits, 6.67 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the British, 2 artilleries owned by the British, 3 fighters owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany Germans win with 1 armour, 5 fighters and 7 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -64 Casualties for British: 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 bomber and 4 infantry Non Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Changing ownership of Denmark from British to Germans EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 infantry moved from Karelia to Russia 1 artillery moved from Karelia to Russia 1 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow 1 destroyer moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone Place Units - British 5 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom Turn Complete - British British collect 38 PUs; end with 39 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans AA : -0.67 Germans regular : 2.17 British regular : -5.33 -
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 fighters; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 2 fighters moved from Karelia to Germany 4 infantry moved from France to English Channel Sea Zone 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 3 destroyers moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Algeria to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya 1 bomber moved from Libya to Germany Combat - Americans Battle in Germany Americans attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 7 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 3 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 9 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/12 hits, 3.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 7 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 4/13 hits, 6.00 expected hits 4 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany 6 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 1/8 hits, 2.50 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 1 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 4.00 expected hits 3 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Germany, round 4 : 1/5 hits, 2.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 5 fighters in Germany, round 4 : 4/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Americans, 1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 artillery owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 5 fighters in Germany, round 5 : 3/5 hits, 3.33 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Germany Germans win with 4 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -32 Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 1 fighter and 7 infantry Non Combat Move - Americans Place Units - Americans 3 fighters placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 46 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Americans regular : -0.33 Germans AA : 0.50 Germans regular : -3.00USA5.tsvg never fear my curse is here. Your game - although Berlin was exposed at 85%.... I tend to agree that removing a piece on the east front feels right. Clean up in Moscow and then go again
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I believe you made a mistake during the UK turn. You edited the Russian transport to Danish Sea, added the tank to Denmark and then also used the tank to attack Berlin, as well as three UK fighters from Karelia that now have a landing spot in Denmark. However this is impossible because the UK tank loaded on the Russian TT on round 4, R5 the Russian TT moves, UK5 the tank unloads the same turn as the attack on Berlin happens -> Tank cannot participate as it just offloaded + Denmark was just captured and therefore doesn't provide a landing spot for the fighters.
Definitely no biggie as the Berlin battle went completely my way, but just pointing out the 85% isn't correct.However I think I made a mistake too when computing the final odds for a German win. I calculated the theoretical best odds for each battle, but if you go fully for one battle then that means some units won't be able to participate in the other. Therefore the final odds for a German win are different.
Allies attack Berlin on G5 (odds for German win)
Berlin: ~64% (and not to forget I can use some tanks from EPOL to recapture Berlin).
Moscow: 68%
Final odds: 43.5%Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
Moscow: 39.47%
Berlin: ~20%
Final odds: 8%So seeing this I believe you should have stacked up Moscow. I could probably use a couple of tanks to strengthen the defense of Berlin to bring up the final odds because a couple extra units have a big impact on the Berlin battle, while only causing a minor drop of odds on Moscow.
In any case 8% looks reasonable, much better than 25% which I previously calculated. Still I want to try the Romania thing to see if it makes the game more balanced or if makes it overshoot in the Allied favor.
EDIT In fact, stacking up Moscow would even be better than attacking Berlin on G5 even if you were able to bring in the extra tank and three fighters.
Berlin: ~ 10%-15%
Moscow: 96%
Final odds: 9.6%-14.4%
Of course, the Berlin battle has a lot of possible variety which makes the final odds hard to compute, but the (generous) 9,6% is still higher than the 8% -
So what I would suggest is redo your Allied turn because what happened wouldn't even be possible - and also because I am curious if the numbers tell the truth
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USA5.tsvg my bad, I did this recently in my game with Theo but he didn't retake the Netherlands so you are correct. The transport edit was just bc I forgot to move it during the Russian turn and I was trying to make sure there was no error in combat.
Here is what we are looking for - fire away:USA5.tsvg
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OK now I am going to try to maximize the final odds for a German win xD
Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
Moscow: 39.47%
Berlin: ~30%
Final odds: 11.8%+1 tank Berlin / -1 tank Moscow
Moscow: 31.25%
Berlin: ~70%
Final odds: ~20% (21.9%)+2 tanks Berlin / -2 tanks Moscow
Moscow 22%
Berlin ~85%
Final odds: ~20% (18.7%)BTW you could have purchased an artillery instead of an infantry on the UK turn. Since you can load two artillery on a transport in this game, you could have had some extra combat factors, so that's why the first calculation in this post is different from the one a couple posts earlier, in that one I assumed you would buy 6 art and 4 inf.
In any case, it looks like +1 tank Berlin -1 tank Moscow is the best strategy. Let's see if I am lucky and can get 1 out of 5...
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TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 6
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 artillery and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow 6 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow 1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus Germans take Caucasus from Russians 1 armour moved from East Poland to Germany Combat - Germans Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry British defend with 2 armour, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 infantry; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 2 fighters; Russians defend with 2 aaGuns, 5 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 54 infantry Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 23/75 hits, 23,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 3 bombers, 6 fighters and 57 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 27/76 hits, 26,83 expected hits 27 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 19 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the British, 1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 17 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 16/48 hits, 18,50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 37 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 19,67 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 17 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 14 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 4 artilleries and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 4 : 7/27 hits, 13,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 21 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 13/37 hits, 14,33 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 9 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 7 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 13 armour and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 5 : 9/14 hits, 7,17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 14 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 15/30 hits, 12,00 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 9 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Russians win with 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -88 Casualties for Germans: 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber and 49 infantry Casualties for British: 1 bomber and 3 infantry Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber Non Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 1 artillery and 11 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 3,17 Germans regular : -6,67 Russians AA : -0,17 -
This is most likely a GG, the Allies can finish the job
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