EXP G40 Game 3 Trout vs JCat
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YES YES YES YES
Comrade Trout wrote : "johnnycat Since it’s a test game you are welcome to redo it. But I had more planes, more tanks, two Tank Armies against your one also. So it was not the dice. Just a straight up victory where the odds were clearly on my side. I didn’t even do any arithmetic or battle calc because my eyeballs told me I would clearly win. Having said that, Berlin will definitely win if you attack Slovakia in your next turn"
THAT WAS EXACTLY THE POINT!
THANK YOU
That is what I need to understand because currently all I had to go on was that photo of the %18.6 odds..
I KNEW there had to be something that I am missing. Do you know what it was? Why that odds battle computer photo is incorrect.?
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I already have much respect for you JT
I sensed (or knew from earlier) that you were highly educated - again I look forward to chatting with you about life and stuff when we both have some time....
You wrote: " The battle calculator is spot on for simple battles but when tank armies etc enter the picture it implodes. Odds were actually well above 80% if not 90% for victory. I am actually decent in arithmetic so I sometimes just pull out pen and paper. Beelee prefers something more high tech so he does a few test battles before doing it for real."
That is exactly the issue. did you see my 18.6% map? Is that what you would see too and you know to ignore that and calculate manually?
I hold a M.S. in Applied Mathematics from the Universe of Illinois so I can add 3 +2 = 4 every time.
But you hit the correct nail ! So how do YOU calculate al this by hand ? Is there some procedure written up that I could follow?
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Gotta love it when Yoda makes a mistake...
BUT I AM STILL ASKING FOR THIS SIMPLE ISSUE:
Were I to have properly seen his actual attack as %86 or whatever and not the pathetic %18.6 my calc showed, WHAT FACTORY COULD I HAVE BUILT THERE?
How about we go back to the Brit turn so that @Trout can reassess that fireworks show?
And I will get to the answer of this factory building in Slovakia....
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@johnnycat My arithmetic solution is stunningly easy enough for a kindergarten student to understand. 4 tanks attacking each with factor of 3. So 4*3=12 right class? Then divide by six = two. So 4 tanks will average two hits. It ain’t more complicated than that
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@johnnycat Only one Tank Army active but the inactive one still had 5 tanks inside it right?
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@johnnycat Enough math class, I am going to bed now.
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You sir are a genius if you can look at this 58 units attacking those 55 units and factor in the extra rolls and such.
I am impressed.
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so I removed the 7 LMs from the Slovak attack and the odds go to 53% SSR
a coin flip but obviously greater than 18%
Edit
also triplea will count the AG Flag as a hit too. I will remove 1 Inf to represent that. It won't be 100% accurate but gets you a little closer.Up to 61% now
Edit 2
If you wanna go more in depth and some people do in the League at the other site, there are some online battle calcs that are discussed over there.It's not for me as triplea gets it close enough for what I do, but as you can see in the above, 1 dude can make a big difference in odds.
I've always just been kind of look at it and go and if not sure check the calc. Which has prevented me from doing some ill advised attacks
Edit 3
you can also click on ctrl-b for the TTy that is being attacked before any movement and then ctrl-a on the TTy it comes from and it will auto add those dudes to the calc.Still might need to tweak it a bit and I've never tried to add from multiple TTys but it's pretty handy as opposed to doing it by hand or playing the turn out
Edit 4
Also for LMs or NMs that don't have a specific unit for which border they are armed on, you should use the Comment Log saying which one they are at so it is easier to look up.I mention it in the game thread as well as putting it in the Log. But the Log is more important. Scrolling back through a game thread isn't as efficient if you don't remember what they are armed against.
It's also why I suggest using the color pattern in Game Notes.
Obviously doesn't matter at the end of the day, but it makes things more informative and hopefully easier to use.
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Good night gents.
I wish to DEEPLY THANK YOU, I’m certainly a difficult genius as my ex told me.
But I truly feel all these interruptions truly worth it !!!!
So let’s think on what to do and why this means so much to me… and to you I’d guess.
I recommend you start with a redo of UK 8 when the uk was planning a blow up show. But your call
🫡
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just heard back from the Captain and yea you can go Undrg and upgrade to Hvy in same turn. That's when you have to do the edit.
You buy the Undrg and Hvy Undrg and edit in a Undrg so the Hvy Unrg can upgrade it and the Undrg upgrades the existing Fctry.
Then remove the Undrg Fctry so you are left with just the Undrg Hvy
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@johnnycat I agree to your proposal. Remember for redoing Slovakia, you have to account for any air or fast movers that can join an attack like paratroopers/tanks/guard infantry in addition to what is in E. Poland. That may be what part of the issue was.
Game History
Round: 8 Purchase Units - Americans Note to players Americans: It is Late 1943 and Our Shipyards are Now Producing Liberty Ships ! The USA may now purchase Heavy Transports. Note to players Americans: <body><b>It is Late 1943 and B-29s are coming off the Assembly Line !<br><br><img src="USA_Hvy_Bomber.png"/><br><br>The USA may now purchase Heavy Bombers.<b></body> Trigger Heavy Transport: buyHeavy_Transport added to productionAmericans Trigger USA Hvy Bomber: buyUSA_Hvy_Bomber added to productionAmericans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Japan: 1 NavalMine EDIT: Adding units owned by Changer to 17 Sea Zone: 1 JPN_SeaMineRed EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Americans buy 3 Escorts, 3 USA_Hvy_Bombers and 3 destroyers; Remaining resources: 8 PUs; Place Units - Americans Combat Move - Americans Trigger RailMovementAutoPlaceAmericans: Americans has 6 Rails placed in Eastern United States 1 submarine moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 cruiser moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 carrier moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 3 usa_fighters moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone 1 battleship moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 104 Sea Zone 2 usa_fighters moved from Gibraltar to 104 Sea Zone 1 FighterAceUSA moved from 109 Sea Zone to 104 Sea Zone 1 usa_fighter moved from 109 Sea Zone to 104 Sea Zone 1 usa_tactical_bomber moved from 31 Sea Zone to 17 Sea Zone 2 usa_fighters moved from 31 Sea Zone to 17 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Wake Island to 16 Sea Zone 3 usa_fighters moved from 31 Sea Zone to 16 Sea Zone Combat - Americans Battle in 17 Sea Zone Changer loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 2 usa_fighters and 1 usa_tactical_bomber Changer defend; Japanese defend with 1 Escort Americans roll dice for 2 usa_fighters and 1 usa_tactical_bomber in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 Escort in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Escort owned by the Japanese lost in 17 Sea Zone Americans win with 2 usa_fighters and 1 usa_tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 Escort Battle in 16 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 bomber and 3 usa_fighters Japanese defend with 1 Japan_destroyer Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 3 usa_fighters in 16 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.17 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 Japan_destroyer in 16 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Japan_destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 16 Sea Zone Americans win with 1 bomber and 3 usa_fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7 Casualties for Japanese: 1 Japan_destroyer Battle in 110 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 3 usa_fighters Germans defend with 1 GermanUBoat Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 GermanUBoat owned by the Germans lost in 110 Sea Zone Americans win with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 3 usa_fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Germans: 1 GermanUBoat Battle in 104 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 FighterAceUSA, 1 destroyer and 3 usa_fighters Germans defend with 1 GermanUBoat Americans roll dice for 1 FighterAceUSA, 1 destroyer and 3 usa_fighters in 104 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 2.83 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 GermanUBoat in 104 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 GermanUBoat owned by the Germans lost in 104 Sea Zone Americans win with 1 FighterAceUSA, 1 destroyer and 3 usa_fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Germans: 1 GermanUBoat Trigger Remove All Wolfpack: has removed 1 Wolfpack owned by Germans in 99 Sea Zone Non Combat Move - Americans Trigger Wolfpack at99 SeaZones: Germans has 1 Wolfpack placed in 99 Sea Zone Trigger RailMovementAutoPlaceRemoveAmericans: has removed 5 Rails owned by Americans in Eastern United States Trigger RailMovementAutoPlaceRemoveAmericans: has removed 1 Rail owned by Americans in Alaska 1 carrier moved from 109 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone 2 usa_fighters moved from 104 Sea Zone to Gibraltar 1 usa_fighter moved from 104 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 1 FighterAceUSA moved from 104 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 109 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 1 usa_fighter moved from 110 Sea Zone to United Kingdom 4 infantry moved from Quebec to 106 Sea Zone 2 ArmoredInfantrys moved from Quebec to 106 Sea Zone 1 usa_para moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone 2 artilleries moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone 3 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 3 infantry, 3 transports and 1 usa_para moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 usa_para moved from 91 Sea Zone to Gibraltar 2 ArmoredInfantrys, 4 infantry and 3 transports moved from 106 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone 2 ArmoredInfantrys and 4 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco 2 usa_fighters moved from 17 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 usa_tactical_bomber moved from 17 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from 16 Sea Zone to Wake Island 3 usa_fighters moved from 16 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 ArmoredInfantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone 2 artilleries moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone 3 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 31 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone 1 mech_infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone 1 ArmoredInfantry, 1 Escort_Convoy, 1 Heavy_BB, 1 Hvycarrier, 2 artilleries, 4 infantry, 1 mech_infantry, 1 pacific_BB, 1 pacific_transport and 3 transports moved from 10 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 4 usa_fighters moved from Western United States to 31 Sea Zone 1 ArmoredInfantry, 2 artilleries, 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from 31 Sea Zone to Wake Island 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 10 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 31 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 Escort_Convoy moved from 31 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from 31 Sea Zone to Wake Island 1 Rail and 1 elite moved from Eastern United States to Alaska Place Units - Americans 2 Escorts and 1 destroyer placed in 10 Sea Zone 1 Escort and 2 destroyers placed in 101 Sea Zone 3 USA_Hvy_Bombers placed in Eastern United States Turn Complete - Americans Note to players Americans: <body><b>It is Late 1943 and Our Shipyards are Hard at Work.<br><br>2 Destroyers are placed off the West Coast. They may only Operate in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.<b></body> Trigger Americans RemoveUSAConvoySZ10Invert: has removed 1 Escort owned by Americans in 10 Sea Zone Trigger Americans RemoveUSAConvoySZ25: has removed 1 Escort_Convoy owned by Americans in 25 Sea Zone Trigger PacificFleetRD8: Americans has 2 pacific_destroyers placed in 10 Sea Zone Trigger PacificFleetJPNRD8: Japanese has 2 JPN_Pacific_DDs placed in 6 Sea Zone Trigger Americans RemoveUSAConvoySZ10Invert: Americans has 1 Escort_Convoy placed in 10 Sea Zone Trigger Americans RemoveUSAConvoySZ25: Americans has 1 Escort placed in 25 Sea Zone Americans collect 52 PUs; end with 60 PUs Trigger Americans AdvancedProduction: Americans met a national objective for an additional 14 PUs; end with 74 PUs Trigger Americans Loses Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional -3 PUs; end with 71 PUs Trigger Americans Loses Guam: Americans met a national objective for an additional -1 PUs; end with 70 PUs Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 80 PUs Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 85 PUs Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 90 PUs Purchase Units - Chinese Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed Chinese buy 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Chinese 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Sikang to Shensi 2 infantry moved from Szechwan to Kweichow 1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Kweichow 3 artilleries and 12 infantry moved from Szechwan to Yunnan Combat - Chinese Battle in Kweichow Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry Japanese defend with 1 infantry Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Kweichow, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Kweichow, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Kweichow Chinese win, taking Kweichow from Japanese with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Battle in Shensi Chinese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Japanese defend with 2 infantry Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Shensi, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Shensi, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Shensi, round 3 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Shensi, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Shensi 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Shensi Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Shensi, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Shensi, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Shensi 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Shensi Chinese win, taking Shensi from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry Battle in Yunnan Chinese attack with 3 artilleries and 12 infantry Japanese defend with 2 infantry Chinese roll dice for 3 artilleries and 12 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 3/15 hits, 3.50 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Yunnan Chinese win, taking Yunnan from Japanese with 3 artilleries and 12 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry Trigger Remove All Wolfpack: has removed 1 Wolfpack owned by Germans in 99 Sea Zone Non Combat Move - Chinese Trigger Wolfpack at99 SeaZones: Germans has 1 Wolfpack placed in 99 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Kweichow to Szechwan Place Units - Chinese 2 infantry placed in Szechwan 3 infantry placed in Yunnan Turn Complete - Chinese Chinese collect 5 PUs; end with 5 PUs Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 11 PUs Objective Advanced Production 1 Infantry: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 14 PUs Purchase Units - British Note to players British: <body><b>It is Late 1943 and Our Factories are Now Producing Heavy Bombers !<br><br><img src="UK_Hvy_Bomber.png"/><b></body> Trigger UK Hvy Bomber: buyUK_Hvy_Bomber added to productionBritish British buy 1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 5 infantry, 1 mech_infantry, 3 uk_armours and 1 uk_para; Remaining resources: 9 PUs; 3 AirLendLease; 3 NavyLendLease; Combat Move - British Trigger RailMovementAutoPlaceBritish: British has 2 Rails placed in Union of South Africa 1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 119 Sea Zone 4 uk_fighters moved from United Kingdom to 119 Sea Zone 1 uk_armour moved from Burma to Shan State British take Shan State from Japanese 1 uk_armour moved from Shan State to Yunnan 1 uk_armour moved from Egypt to Trans-Jordan British take Trans-Jordan from Germans 1 uk_armour moved from Trans-Jordan to Egypt 1 infantry moved from Egypt to Alexandria 2 uk_fighters moved from Egypt to Alexandria 1 uk_tactical_bomber moved from Egypt to Alexandria 1 artillery moved from Eastern Persia to Persia British take Persia from Germans Combat - British Battle in Alexandria British attack with 1 infantry, 2 uk_fighters and 1 uk_tactical_bomber Germans defend with 1 German_LCV and 1 infantry British roll dice for 1 infantry, 2 uk_fighters and 1 uk_tactical_bomber in Alexandria, round 2 : 4/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Italians roll dice for 1 German_LCV and 1 infantry in Alexandria, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 German_LCV owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Alexandria British win, taking Alexandria from Italians with 1 infantry, 2 uk_fighters and 1 uk_tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Germans: 1 German_LCV and 1 infantry Battle in 119 Sea Zone British attack with 1 destroyer and 4 uk_fighters Germans defend with 1 GermanUBoat British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 4 uk_fighters in 119 Sea Zone, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2.33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 GermanUBoat in 119 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 GermanUBoat owned by the Germans lost in 119 Sea Zone British win, taking 119 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 destroyer and 4 uk_fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Germans: 1 GermanUBoat Trigger Remove All Wolfpack: has removed 1 Wolfpack owned by Germans in 99 Sea Zone Non Combat Move - British Trigger RailMovementAutoPlaceRemoveBritish: has removed 2 Rails owned by British in Egypt 4 uk_fighters moved from 119 Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 transport moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 battleship moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 2 uk_fighters moved from Alexandria to Egypt 1 uk_tactical_bomber moved from Alexandria to Egypt 1 uk_armour moved from Belgian Congo to Egypt 1 Rail and 1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Egypt 1 Rail and 1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Egypt 3 aaGuns, 3 artilleries, 13 infantry and 6 uk_armours moved from Burma to Yunnan 1 uk_armour moved from India to Yunnan 1 uk_fighter moved from India to Yunnan 2 infantry moved from India to Burma 1 infantry moved from West India to Eastern Persia Place Units - British Trigger Wolfpack at99 SeaZones: Germans has 1 Wolfpack placed in 99 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 uk_armour placed in India 1 uk_para placed in United Kingdom 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in Union of South Africa 1 aaGun and 2 uk_armours placed in Egypt Turn Complete - British British collect 41 PUs; end with 50 PUs Trigger British AdvancedProduction: British met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 56 PUs Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 61 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Chinese regular : -1.17 Americans regular : -1.00 Italians regular : -0.33 Japanese regular : -1.33 Germans regular : -0.33 British regular : 2.83f87202c1-eca1-4bd4-aa8c-60541b904a9f-trout-cat-game-3-uk8.tsvg
