TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay
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Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 15 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber moved from Greece to Stalingrad 1 armour moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq Germans take Iraq from Middle_East 1 armour moved from Iraq to Iran Germans take Iran from Middle_East 19 armour, 8 artilleries and 48 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia 1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belorussia 9 armour moved from Germany to East Poland 1 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland Combat - Germans Strategic bombing raid in Stalingrad Russians roll AA dice in Stalingrad : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Bombing raid in Stalingrad rolls: 4 and costs: 4 PUs. Bombing raid costs 4 PUs Battle in Belorussia Germans attack with 19 armour, 8 artilleries and 49 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 19 armour, 8 artilleries and 49 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 24/76 hits, 21.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Belorussia 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia Germans win, taking Belorussia from Russians with 19 armour, 8 artilleries and 48 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber moved from Stalingrad to East Poland 2 fighters moved from Germany to East Poland 2 fighters moved from Germany to East Poland Place Units - Germans 15 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 48 PUs; end with 48 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 0.67 Germans regular : 2.33 Russians AA : -0.17 -
TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 5
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 5 Actions - Russians Russians takes action: Action USAPays8PUs Action USAPays8PUs activates a trigger called: Trigger USAPays8PUs Trigger USAPays8PUs: Americans met a national objective for an additional -8 PUs; end with 32 PUs Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Non Combat Move - Russians 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 25 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow 1 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Russia 2 artilleries and 28 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow 1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Azores Sea Sea Zone 1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone Place Units - Russians 7 infantry placed in Moscow Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Finland: 1 aaGun EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Karelia: 1 aaGun EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 24 PUs; end with 24 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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TripleA Turn Summary: British round 5
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - British British buy 2 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium British take Netherlands-Belgium from Germans 1 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France British take France from Germans 1 destroyer moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 1 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow 4 fighters moved from Finland to Moscow 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Caucasus to Iran Combat - British Battle in Iran British attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Germans defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry British roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Iran, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Iran, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Iran British roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Iran, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Iran, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Iran British win, taking Iran from Germans with 1 artillery and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Germans: 1 armour and 1 infantry Non Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode EDIT: 1 aaGun moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France Place Units - British 2 artilleries and 3 infantry placed in United Kingdom 1 transport placed in English Channel Sea Zone Turn Complete - British British collect 30 PUs; end with 30 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : -1.00 British regular : 1.00 -
TripleA Turn Summary: Americans round 5
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 2 artilleries, 2 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Non Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber and 4 fighters moved from Finland to Moscow 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries, 2 destroyers, 2 infantry and 3 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 1 destroyer moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 4 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom Place Units - Americans 2 artilleries and 2 infantry placed in United States 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 42 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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Moscow is around 30%, which is actually pretty high given the bad German dice on the EF plus the fact they are missing 4 inf from the SCA.
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@victoryfirst it took me a lot of work and computing different outcomes to make that happen. I will post the dice shortly. I actually have an awful game for the Allies with Ragnell so it will be interesting to compare the two - i might post the numbers and final percentages and @ you both since both games used the balance. Two "wrongs" can sometimes make a "right" lol.
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@VictoryFirst (and between you and me, I think the Germans will need a tank removed from the at start setup)
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@the_good_captain said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:
it took me a lot of work and computing different outcomes to make that happen.
You mean the Moscow odds, bringing them in Germany's favor as much as possible?
I will check out your game with Ragnell, I'm curious to know how that game is going!
And those numbers you calculate every time are great, please keep doing that. Not sure how you calculate those exactly, do you just compare the average units left for both sides in each battle with the actual units left?
I think balancing Europe is going to be tricky as it all comes down to the big Moscow battle. Small randomness during the game can have a big effect on the final odds. So we probably have to a large number of games until we can achieve perfect balance.
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Actually when I think about it, 30% would be quite reasonable. Normally the odds on Moscow are 90+% in Germany's favor. In case of huge losses on the EF, that would drop to around 50%. In our game we had 4 German infantry removed, dropping the odds even more.
I also could have started moving the British units in Africa to Russia on turn 1 and not on turn 2 so that they would reach in time because now the 3 inf + 1 art were too late. With those reinforcements the odds would have probably been lower than 20%
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@victoryfirst said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:
@the_good_captain said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:
it took me a lot of work and computing different outcomes to make that happen.
You mean the Moscow odds, bringing them in Germany's favor as much as possible?
Yes, but also respecting the defense of Berlin. It's a precarious balance. The game appears purposefully or accidentally designed to have the battle for Moscow occur the same time as the battle of Berlin. But where the allies only need to win ONE of these two battles, the Germans MUST win both. Therefore, a balanced game should see German at 70.5% for both battles. This would mean that the game is balanced assuming even dice.
And yes - to arrive at the best statistical outcome, I use "units left if attacker won" and add or subtract based on how many attacker units are left. There are a few other mechanics I use in different situations like strafes or battles that are close to 50/50 but yeah, thats basically how I do it. I will release a video in the future about this as I think it is a far, far better measure of dice than.... low luck (yuk).
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G2:
-10.01 on the East front
+1.5 in the Atlantic
+0.06 in the MedNet: -8.09
G3
-10.01 on the East front
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the MedNet: -8.77
G4
-9.01 on the East front
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the MedNet: -7.77
G5 (German turn only)
-9.52 on the East Front (SBR +0.5)
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the MedNet: -8.28
Final: 0% German, 30% Moscow
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Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 3 armour and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 19 armour, 8 artilleries and 48 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow 9 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow 5 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow 1 bomber moved from East Poland to Moscow Combat - Germans Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry British defend with 2 armour and 4 fighters; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 4 fighters; Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 2 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 3 fighters and 67 infantry Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/6 hits, 1.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 30/90 hits, 29.17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 2 bombers, 11 fighters and 67 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 37/89 hits, 33.00 expected hits 37 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 28 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians and 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 23.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 39 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 22/59 hits, 23.33 expected hits 8 artilleries owned by the Germans, 11 infantry owned by the Germans and 3 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 21 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 25 armour, 1 bomber and 5 fighters in Moscow, round 4 : 14/31 hits, 15.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 18 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 12/38 hits, 16.33 expected hits 12 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 14 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 13 armour, 1 bomber and 5 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 9/19 hits, 9.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 4 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 14/24 hits, 11.67 expected hits 1 fighter owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 4 infantry owned by the Russians and 5 artilleries owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 4/5 hits, 2.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 armour and 11 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 10/15 hits, 8.67 expected hits 4 fighters owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 2 armour owned by the Russians and 2 armour owned by the British lost in Moscow Russians win with 11 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -120 Casualties for Germans: 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry Casualties for Russians: 2 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 67 infantry Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber Casualties for British: 2 armour Non Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 3 armour and 11 infantry were produced but were not placed Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 2.00 Germans regular : -2.17 Russians AA : -1.00G6 Final.tsvg based on the distribution and the fact that you 'could' have had two more infantry in Moscow, I think Germany having a 33% chance to win the game after holding "-8" across the game is decent. I still suspect we need to drop a tank but another game or two will make things clear. Would you like the Germans now? We are getting close...
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Sure thing my friend. Let's keep it rolling! If you let me know your bid we can start.
Thank you for posting the numbers, they provide a lot of insights.
GG
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@victoryfirst 2 infantry in Malta and 2 infantry in Ukraine
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@victoryfirst there may have been a misunderstanding on sides here and thats why the game hasnt started.
I thought I was allies and gave you my bid. Did you want to be allies?
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i had already set up our game and mentioned you with @The_Good_Captain but I suspect you have notifications disabled so that's my bad. Here is the link:
https://forums.triplea-game.org/topic/4015/8-vf-germans-vs-tgc-allies-original-europe-no-german-sca-one-sub-bay-of-biscay-removed
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