TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay

The_Good_Captain

@VictoryFirst (and between you and me, I think the Germans will need a tank removed from the at start setup)

VictoryFirst

@the_good_captain said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:

it took me a lot of work and computing different outcomes to make that happen.

You mean the Moscow odds, bringing them in Germany's favor as much as possible?

I will check out your game with Ragnell, I'm curious to know how that game is going!

And those numbers you calculate every time are great, please keep doing that. Not sure how you calculate those exactly, do you just compare the average units left for both sides in each battle with the actual units left?

I think balancing Europe is going to be tricky as it all comes down to the big Moscow battle. Small randomness during the game can have a big effect on the final odds. So we probably have to a large number of games until we can achieve perfect balance.

VictoryFirst

Actually when I think about it, 30% would be quite reasonable. Normally the odds on Moscow are 90+% in Germany's favor. In case of huge losses on the EF, that would drop to around 50%. In our game we had 4 German infantry removed, dropping the odds even more.

I also could have started moving the British units in Africa to Russia on turn 1 and not on turn 2 so that they would reach in time because now the 3 inf + 1 art were too late. With those reinforcements the odds would have probably been lower than 20%

The_Good_Captain

@victoryfirst said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:

@the_good_captain said in TGC (Germans) vs VF (Allies) - Original Europe, no Germans SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay:

it took me a lot of work and computing different outcomes to make that happen.

You mean the Moscow odds, bringing them in Germany's favor as much as possible?

Yes, but also respecting the defense of Berlin. It's a precarious balance. The game appears purposefully or accidentally designed to have the battle for Moscow occur the same time as the battle of Berlin. But where the allies only need to win ONE of these two battles, the Germans MUST win both. Therefore, a balanced game should see German at 70.5% for both battles. This would mean that the game is balanced assuming even dice.

And yes - to arrive at the best statistical outcome, I use "units left if attacker won" and add or subtract based on how many attacker units are left. There are a few other mechanics I use in different situations like strafes or battles that are close to 50/50 but yeah, thats basically how I do it. I will release a video in the future about this as I think it is a far, far better measure of dice than.... low luck (yuk).

The_Good_Captain

@victoryfirst

G2:
-10.01 on the East front
+1.5 in the Atlantic
+0.06 in the Med

Net: -8.09

G3
-10.01 on the East front
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the Med

Net: -8.77

G4
-9.01 on the East front
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the Med

Net: -7.77

G5 (German turn only)
-9.52 on the East Front (SBR +0.5)
+1.16 in the Atlantic
+0.08 in the Med

Net: -8.28

Final: 0% German, 30% Moscow

The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 3 armour and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        19 armour, 8 artilleries and 48 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
        9 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow
        5 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow
        1 bomber moved from East Poland to Moscow

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Moscow
            Germans attack with 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry
            British defend with 2 armour and 4 fighters; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 4 fighters; Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 2 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 3 fighters and 67 infantry
                Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/6 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 30/90 hits, 29.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 2 bombers, 11 fighters and 67 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 37/89 hits, 33.00 expected hits
                37 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                28 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians and 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 23.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 39 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 22/59 hits, 23.33 expected hits
                8 artilleries owned by the Germans, 11 infantry owned by the Germans and 3 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                21 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 25 armour, 1 bomber and 5 fighters in Moscow, round 4 : 14/31 hits, 15.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 18 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 12/38 hits, 16.33 expected hits
                12 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                14 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 13 armour, 1 bomber and 5 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 9/19 hits, 9.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 fighters and 4 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 14/24 hits, 11.67 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                4 infantry owned by the Russians and 5 artilleries owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 4/5 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour and 11 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 10/15 hits, 8.67 expected hits
                4 fighters owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                2 armour owned by the Russians and 2 armour owned by the British lost in Moscow
            Russians win with 11 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -120
            Casualties for Germans: 28 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 48 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 67 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber
            Casualties for British: 2 armour

    Non Combat Move - Germans

    Place Units - Germans
        3 armour and 11 infantry were produced but were not placed

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 2.00
Germans regular : -2.17
Russians AA : -1.00

G6 Final.tsvg based on the distribution and the fact that you 'could' have had two more infantry in Moscow, I think Germany having a 33% chance to win the game after holding "-8" across the game is decent. I still suspect we need to drop a tank but another game or two will make things clear. Would you like the Germans now? We are getting close...

VictoryFirst

Sure thing my friend. Let's keep it rolling! If you let me know your bid we can start.

Thank you for posting the numbers, they provide a lot of insights.

GG

The_Good_Captain

@victoryfirst 2 infantry in Malta and 2 infantry in Ukraine

The_Good_Captain

@victoryfirst there may have been a misunderstanding on sides here and thats why the game hasnt started.

I thought I was allies and gave you my bid. Did you want to be allies?

VictoryFirst

i had already set up our game and mentioned you with @The_Good_Captain but I suspect you have notifications disabled so that's my bad. Here is the link:
https://forums.triplea-game.org/topic/4015/8-vf-germans-vs-tgc-allies-original-europe-no-german-sca-one-sub-bay-of-biscay-removed