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    #8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed

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    • T Offline
      The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
      last edited by

      @victoryfirst

      Game History

      Round: 4
      
          Purchase Units - Russians
              Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Russians
              2 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
              1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Karelia to Belorussia
      
          Combat - Russians
              Battle in Belorussia
                  Russians attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      Russians roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Belorussia
                  Russians win, taking Belorussia from Germans with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                  Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - Russians
              1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Belorussia to Moscow
              5 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow
              1 artillery moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus
              1 aaGun moved from Karelia to Leningrad
              1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from Leningrad to Russia
              1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
              1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
      
          Place Units - Russians
              7 infantry placed in Moscow
      
          Turn Complete - Russians
              Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 24 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans regular : 0.67
      Russians regular : -0.50
      
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      • T Offline
        The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
        last edited by

        @victoryfirst

        Game History

        Round: 4
        
            Purchase Units - British
                British buy 5 artilleries and 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
        
            Combat Move - British
                1 artillery moved from Algeria to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to France
                      British take France from Germans
                1 infantry moved from Norway to Norwegian Sea Sea Zone
                1 infantry moved from Norway to Norwegian Sea Sea Zone
                2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
                      British take Netherlands-Belgium from Germans
        
            Combat - British
        
            Non Combat Move - British
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
                1 armour moved from Norway to Karelia
                1 destroyer and 1 transport moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone
                1 transport moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Sea Zone
                2 infantry and 1 transport moved from North Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France
                1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France
                1 armour moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
                1 destroyer moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow
                1 armour moved from Caucasus to Moscow
                1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Turkestan
                1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Leningrad to Karelia
                1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Karelia
        
            Place Units - British
                5 artilleries and 4 infantry placed in United Kingdom
        
            Turn Complete - British
                British collect 36 PUs; end with 36 PUs
        
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        • T Offline
          The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
          last edited by

          @victoryfirst

          Game History

          Round: 4
          
              Purchase Units - Americans
                  Americans buy 3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; 
          
              Combat Move - Americans
                  Turning on Edit Mode
                  EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Western Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                  Turning on Edit Mode
                  EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Western Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                  1 bomber moved from Libya to Northern Italy
                  1 transport moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
          
              Combat - Americans
                  Strategic bombing raid in Northern Italy
                      Bombing raid in Northern Italy rolls: 1 and costs: 1 PU.
                      Bombing raid costs 1 PU
          
              Non Combat Move - Americans
                  Turning on Edit Mode
                  EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
                  EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                  1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to Libya
                  1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
                  2 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                  4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
                  4 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France
                  3 destroyers moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                  1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
                  1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone
                  1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to United Kingdom
                  2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Karelia
          
              Place Units - Americans
                  3 artilleries and 3 infantry placed in United States
                  2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
          
              Turn Complete - Americans
                  Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 45 PUs
          

          USA4.tsvg

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          • VictoryFirstV Offline
            VictoryFirst
            last edited by

            TUV Differential / Net TUV - Round 4
            After G4
            Eastern Front: -34.4 / -21
            Atlantic/WA: -10.83 / +4
            Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
            Total: -50.29 / -31

            After Allied4
            Eastern Front: -32.5 / -21
            Atlantic/WA: -8.33 / +3
            Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
            Total: -45.89 / -32

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            • VictoryFirstV Offline
              VictoryFirst
              last edited by

              TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 5

              TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

              Game History

              Round: 5
              
                  Purchase Units - Germans
                      Germans buy 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 
              
                  Combat Move - Germans
                      16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia
                      4 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
                      1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R.
                      1 bomber moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R.
                      5 fighters moved from Germany to Netherlands-Belgium
                      1 armour moved from Germany to Netherlands-Belgium
              
                  Combat - Germans
                      Battle in Belorussia
                          Germans attack with 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry
                          Russians defend with 1 infantry
                              Germans roll dice for 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 20/68 hits, 19,33 expected hits
                              Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                              1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia
                          Germans win, taking Belorussia from Russians with 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                          Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                      Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                          Germans attack with 1 bomber and 1 infantry
                          Russians defend with 1 infantry
                              Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                              Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                              1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                          Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 1 bomber and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                          Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                      Battle in Netherlands-Belgium
                          Germans attack with 1 armour and 5 fighters
                          British defend with 2 infantry
                              Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 5 fighters in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 5/6 hits, 3,00 expected hits
                              British roll dice for 2 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                              2 infantry owned by the British lost in Netherlands-Belgium
                          Germans win, taking Netherlands-Belgium from British with 1 armour and 5 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                          Casualties for British: 2 infantry
              
                  Non Combat Move - Germans
                      5 fighters moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
                      1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany
                      3 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
              
                  Place Units - Germans
                      11 infantry placed in Germany
              
                  Turn Complete - Germans
                      Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 37 PUs
              

              Combat Hit Differential Summary :

              Russians regular : -0,67
              Germans regular : 2,83
              British regular : -0,67
              

              Savegame

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              • VictoryFirstV Offline
                VictoryFirst
                last edited by

                Odds:

                Moscow: 40.05%
                Berlin: 35.96% (20%-55%)
                Final odds: 25,6% (18%-32%)

                Given the bad German dice during this game, I'd say we need to remove the infantry from Romania to make Europe completely balanced.

                T 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • VictoryFirstV Offline
                  VictoryFirst
                  last edited by

                  Funny because the game started out quite good in Germany's favor, but it went very much downhill later in the game. I think that's because the Allies rolled a bit above average in every single naval battle, and all those small bits added up and created a massive TUV swing in the Allies' favor.

                  In any case, I am not a fan of the G1 I did so let's go again after this. Did you want to experiment already with one infantry from Romania removed? I am already testing this with Ragnell due to a similar bad German game that still had - at least in my opinion - decent Moscow odds.

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                  • T Offline
                    The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                    last edited by

                    @victoryfirst said in #8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed:

                    Odds:

                    Moscow: 40.05%
                    Berlin: 35.96% (20%-55%)
                    Final odds: 25,6% (18%-32%)

                    Given the bad German dice during this game, I'd say we need to remove the infantry from Romania to make Europe completely balanced.

                    Looks right and so I'm going to take the 85% chance the Allies take Moscow on G5.

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                    • T Offline
                      The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                      last edited by

                      @victoryfirst

                      Game History

                      Round: 5
                      
                          Purchase Units - Russians
                              Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
                      
                          Combat Move - Russians
                              1 bomber moved from Moscow to Germany
                      
                          Combat - Russians
                              Battle in Germany
                                  Russians attack with 1 bomber
                                  Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 11 infantry
                                      Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                                      Russians roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                                      Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/18 hits, 7.50 expected hits
                                      1 bomber owned by the Russians lost in Germany
                                  Germans win with 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15
                                  Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber
                      
                          Non Combat Move - Russians
                              1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow
                              1 artillery moved from Caucasus to Turkestan
                      
                          Place Units - Russians
                              8 infantry placed in Moscow
                      
                          Turn Complete - Russians
                              Russians collect 19 PUs; end with 19 PUs
                      

                      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

                      Germans AA : -0.17
                      Germans regular : -2.50
                      Russians regular : -0.67
                      
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                      • T Offline
                        The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                        last edited by

                        @victoryfirst

                        Game History

                        Round: 5
                        
                            Purchase Units - British
                                Turning on Edit Mode
                                EDIT: Removing units owned by British from English Channel Sea Zone: 1 armour
                                EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from English Channel Sea Zone: 1 transport
                                EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                                British buy 5 artilleries and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
                        
                            Combat Move - British
                                Turning on Edit Mode
                                EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Denmark: 1 armour
                                EDIT: Changing ownership of Denmark from Germans to British
                                EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Danish Sea Sea Zone: 1 transport
                                EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                                1 armour moved from Denmark to Germany
                                1 infantry moved from France to Eastern France
                                      British take Eastern France from Germans
                                1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium
                                1 transport moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
                                4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
                                4 artilleries, 4 infantry and 4 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
                                1 destroyer moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                1 destroyer moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone
                                1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
                                1 bomber and 3 fighters moved from Karelia to Germany
                        
                            Combat - British
                                Battle in Netherlands-Belgium
                                    British attack with 1 artillery and 4 infantry
                                    Germans defend with 1 armour
                                        British roll dice for 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                                        Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                                        British roll dice for 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                                        Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                                        1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Netherlands-Belgium
                                    British win, taking Netherlands-Belgium from Germans with 1 artillery and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                                    Casualties for Germans: 1 armour
                                Battle in Germany
                                    British attack with 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry
                                    Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 11 infantry
                                        Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/4 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                                        British roll dice for 2 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                                        British roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 3/15 hits, 6.00 expected hits
                                        Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 11 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 8/18 hits, 7.50 expected hits
                                        3 artilleries owned by the British and 5 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                                        1 bomber owned by the Germans and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                        British roll dice for 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 fighters in Germany, round 3 : 2/7 hits, 3.33 expected hits
                                        Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 9 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 9/15 hits, 6.67 expected hits
                                        1 bomber owned by the British, 2 artilleries owned by the British, 3 fighters owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany
                                        2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                    Germans win with 1 armour, 5 fighters and 7 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -64
                                    Casualties for British: 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 5 infantry
                                    Casualties for Germans: 1 bomber and 4 infantry
                        
                            Non Combat Move - British
                                Turning on Edit Mode
                                EDIT: Changing ownership of Denmark from British to Germans
                                EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
                                1 infantry moved from Karelia to Russia
                                1 artillery moved from Karelia to Russia
                                1 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow
                                1 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow
                                1 destroyer moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Bay of Biscay Sea Zone
                        
                            Place Units - British
                                5 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom
                        
                            Turn Complete - British
                                British collect 38 PUs; end with 39 PUs
                        

                        Combat Hit Differential Summary :

                        Germans AA : -0.67
                        Germans regular : 2.17
                        British regular : -5.33
                        
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                        • T Offline
                          The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                          last edited by

                          @victoryfirst

                          Game History

                          Round: 5
                          
                              Purchase Units - Americans
                                  Americans buy 3 fighters; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; 
                          
                              Combat Move - Americans
                                  2 fighters moved from Karelia to Germany
                                  4 infantry moved from France to English Channel Sea Zone
                                  4 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                  4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
                                  1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone
                                  1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                  1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
                                  3 destroyers moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
                                  1 infantry moved from Algeria to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                                  1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                                  1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
                                  1 bomber moved from Libya to Germany
                          
                              Combat - Americans
                                  Battle in Germany
                                      Americans attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry
                                      Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 7 infantry
                                          Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                                          1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                                          Americans roll dice for 3 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                                          Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 9 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/12 hits, 3.17 expected hits
                                          Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 7 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 4/13 hits, 6.00 expected hits
                                          4 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                                          6 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                          Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 1/8 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                                          Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 1 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 4.00 expected hits
                                          3 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                                          1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                          Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Germany, round 4 : 1/5 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                                          Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 5 fighters in Germany, round 4 : 4/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                                          2 infantry owned by the Americans, 1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 artillery owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                                          1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                          Americans roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                                          Germans roll dice for 5 fighters in Germany, round 5 : 3/5 hits, 3.33 expected hits
                                          1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                                          1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                                      Germans win with 4 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -32
                                      Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry
                                      Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 1 fighter and 7 infantry
                          
                              Non Combat Move - Americans
                          
                              Place Units - Americans
                                  3 fighters placed in United States
                          
                              Turn Complete - Americans
                                  Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 46 PUs
                          

                          Combat Hit Differential Summary :

                          Americans regular : -0.33
                          Germans AA : 0.50
                          Germans regular : -3.00
                          

                          USA5.tsvg never fear my curse is here. Your game - although Berlin was exposed at 85%.... I tend to agree that removing a piece on the east front feels right. Clean up in Moscow and then go again 😃

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                          • VictoryFirstV Offline
                            VictoryFirst
                            last edited by VictoryFirst

                            I believe you made a mistake during the UK turn. You edited the Russian transport to Danish Sea, added the tank to Denmark and then also used the tank to attack Berlin, as well as three UK fighters from Karelia that now have a landing spot in Denmark. However this is impossible because the UK tank loaded on the Russian TT on round 4, R5 the Russian TT moves, UK5 the tank unloads the same turn as the attack on Berlin happens -> Tank cannot participate as it just offloaded + Denmark was just captured and therefore doesn't provide a landing spot for the fighters.
                            Definitely no biggie as the Berlin battle went completely my way, but just pointing out the 85% isn't correct.

                            However I think I made a mistake too when computing the final odds for a German win. I calculated the theoretical best odds for each battle, but if you go fully for one battle then that means some units won't be able to participate in the other. Therefore the final odds for a German win are different.

                            Allies attack Berlin on G5 (odds for German win)
                            Berlin: ~64% (and not to forget I can use some tanks from EPOL to recapture Berlin).
                            Moscow: 68%
                            Final odds: 43.5%

                            Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
                            Moscow: 39.47%
                            Berlin: ~20%
                            Final odds: 8%

                            So seeing this I believe you should have stacked up Moscow. I could probably use a couple of tanks to strengthen the defense of Berlin to bring up the final odds because a couple extra units have a big impact on the Berlin battle, while only causing a minor drop of odds on Moscow.

                            In any case 8% looks reasonable, much better than 25% which I previously calculated. Still I want to try the Romania thing to see if it makes the game more balanced or if makes it overshoot in the Allied favor.

                            EDIT In fact, stacking up Moscow would even be better than attacking Berlin on G5 even if you were able to bring in the extra tank and three fighters.
                            Berlin: ~ 10%-15%
                            Moscow: 96%
                            Final odds: 9.6%-14.4%
                            Of course, the Berlin battle has a lot of possible variety which makes the final odds hard to compute, but the (generous) 9,6% is still higher than the 8%

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                            • VictoryFirstV Offline
                              VictoryFirst
                              last edited by

                              So what I would suggest is redo your Allied turn because what happened wouldn't even be possible - and also because I am curious if the numbers tell the truth 😀

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                              • T Offline
                                The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                                last edited by

                                @victoryfirst

                                USA5.tsvg my bad, I did this recently in my game with Theo but he didn't retake the Netherlands so you are correct. The transport edit was just bc I forgot to move it during the Russian turn and I was trying to make sure there was no error in combat.

                                Here is what we are looking for - fire away:USA5.tsvg

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                                • VictoryFirstV Offline
                                  VictoryFirst
                                  last edited by

                                  OK now I am going to try to maximize the final odds for a German win xD

                                  Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
                                  Moscow: 39.47%
                                  Berlin: ~30%
                                  Final odds: 11.8%

                                  +1 tank Berlin / -1 tank Moscow
                                  Moscow: 31.25%
                                  Berlin: ~70%
                                  Final odds: ~20% (21.9%)

                                  +2 tanks Berlin / -2 tanks Moscow
                                  Moscow 22%
                                  Berlin ~85%
                                  Final odds: ~20% (18.7%)

                                  BTW you could have purchased an artillery instead of an infantry on the UK turn. Since you can load two artillery on a transport in this game, you could have had some extra combat factors, so that's why the first calculation in this post is different from the one a couple posts earlier, in that one I assumed you would buy 6 art and 4 inf.

                                  In any case, it looks like +1 tank Berlin -1 tank Moscow is the best strategy. Let's see if I am lucky and can get 1 out of 5... 🙂

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                                  • VictoryFirstV Offline
                                    VictoryFirst
                                    last edited by

                                    TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 6

                                    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

                                    Game History

                                    Round: 6
                                    
                                        Purchase Units - Germans
                                            Germans buy 1 artillery and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
                                    
                                        Combat Move - Germans
                                            16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
                                            6 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow
                                            1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow
                                            1 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus
                                                  Germans take Caucasus from Russians
                                            1 armour moved from East Poland to Germany
                                    
                                        Combat - Germans
                                            Battle in Moscow
                                                Germans attack with 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry
                                                British defend with 2 armour, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 infantry; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 2 fighters; Russians defend with 2 aaGuns, 5 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 54 infantry
                                                    Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                                                    Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 23/75 hits, 23,00 expected hits
                                                    Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 3 bombers, 6 fighters and 57 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 27/76 hits, 26,83 expected hits
                                                    27 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                                                    19 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the British, 1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow
                                                    Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 17 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 16/48 hits, 18,50 expected hits
                                                    Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 37 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 19,67 expected hits
                                                    4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 17 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                                                    14 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow
                                                    Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 4 artilleries and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 4 : 7/27 hits, 13,00 expected hits
                                                    Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 21 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 13/37 hits, 14,33 expected hits
                                                    4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 9 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                                                    7 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                                                    Germans roll dice for 13 armour and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 5 : 9/14 hits, 7,17 expected hits
                                                    Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 14 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 15/30 hits, 12,00 expected hits
                                                    1 bomber owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                                                    9 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                                                Russians win with 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -88
                                                Casualties for Germans: 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry
                                                Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber and 49 infantry
                                                Casualties for British: 1 bomber and 3 infantry
                                                Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber
                                    
                                        Non Combat Move - Germans
                                    
                                        Place Units - Germans
                                            1 artillery and 11 infantry placed in Germany
                                    
                                        Turn Complete - Germans
                                            Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUs
                                    

                                    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

                                    Russians regular : 3,17
                                    Germans regular : -6,67
                                    Russians AA : -0,17
                                    

                                    Savegame

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                                    • VictoryFirstV Offline
                                      VictoryFirst
                                      last edited by

                                      This is most likely a GG, the Allies can finish the job 🙂

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                                      • T Offline
                                        The_Good_Captain @VictoryFirst
                                        last edited by

                                        @victoryfirst do you have the final numbers for how well or bad the Germans did in this game? If not, I will do it - I'd hate to overcorrect. This seemed like a pretty good Allied win and so I want to make sure the dice show Germany at something like.... minus -7 ish..

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                                        • VictoryFirstV Offline
                                          VictoryFirst @The_Good_Captain
                                          last edited by

                                          @the_good_captain

                                          Well I have this:

                                          After Allied4
                                          Eastern Front: -32.5 / -21
                                          Atlantic/WA: -8.33 / +3
                                          Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
                                          Total: -45.89 / -32

                                          I have not calculated the net pieces, however I can still do that if you want.

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                                          • T Offline
                                            The_Good_Captain
                                            last edited by

                                            @victoryfirst

                                            Game History

                                            Round: 6
                                            
                                                Purchase Units - Russians
                                                    Russians buy 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
                                            
                                                Combat Move - Russians
                                                    1 artillery moved from Turkestan to Caucasus
                                                    1 armour moved from Moscow to Ukraine S.S.R.
                                                          Russians take Belorussia from Germans
                                                          Russians take Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans
                                                    1 armour moved from Moscow to East Poland
                                                          Russians take East Poland from Germans
                                                    1 armour moved from Moscow to Baltic States
                                                          Russians take Baltic States from Germans
                                                    2 armour moved from Moscow to Caucasus
                                                    1 fighter moved from Moscow to Caucasus
                                            
                                                Combat - Russians
                                                    Battle in Caucasus
                                                        Russians attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter
                                                        Germans defend with 1 infantry
                                                            Russians roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits
                                                            Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                                                            1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                                                        Russians win, taking Caucasus from Germans with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                                                        Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                                            
                                                Non Combat Move - Russians
                                                    1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia
                                                    1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Russia
                                                    1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
                                                    1 aaGun moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
                                                    1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Moscow
                                            
                                                Place Units - Russians
                                                    6 infantry placed in Moscow
                                            
                                                Turn Complete - Russians
                                                    Russians collect 24 PUs; end with 25 PUs
                                            

                                            Combat Hit Differential Summary :

                                            Germans regular : -0.33
                                            Russians regular : 0.17
                                            
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