#8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed
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OK now I am going to try to maximize the final odds for a German win xD
Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
Moscow: 39.47%
Berlin: ~30%
Final odds: 11.8%+1 tank Berlin / -1 tank Moscow
Moscow: 31.25%
Berlin: ~70%
Final odds: ~20% (21.9%)+2 tanks Berlin / -2 tanks Moscow
Moscow 22%
Berlin ~85%
Final odds: ~20% (18.7%)BTW you could have purchased an artillery instead of an infantry on the UK turn. Since you can load two artillery on a transport in this game, you could have had some extra combat factors, so that's why the first calculation in this post is different from the one a couple posts earlier, in that one I assumed you would buy 6 art and 4 inf.
In any case, it looks like +1 tank Berlin -1 tank Moscow is the best strategy. Let's see if I am lucky and can get 1 out of 5...
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TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 6
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 artillery and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow 6 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow 1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus Germans take Caucasus from Russians 1 armour moved from East Poland to Germany Combat - Germans Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry British defend with 2 armour, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 infantry; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 2 fighters; Russians defend with 2 aaGuns, 5 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 54 infantry Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 23/75 hits, 23,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 3 bombers, 6 fighters and 57 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 27/76 hits, 26,83 expected hits 27 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 19 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the British, 1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 17 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 16/48 hits, 18,50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 37 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 19,67 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 17 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 14 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 4 artilleries and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 4 : 7/27 hits, 13,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 21 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 13/37 hits, 14,33 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 9 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 7 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 13 armour and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 5 : 9/14 hits, 7,17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 14 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 15/30 hits, 12,00 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 9 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Russians win with 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -88 Casualties for Germans: 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber and 49 infantry Casualties for British: 1 bomber and 3 infantry Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber Non Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 1 artillery and 11 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 3,17 Germans regular : -6,67 Russians AA : -0,17 -
This is most likely a GG, the Allies can finish the job
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@victoryfirst do you have the final numbers for how well or bad the Germans did in this game? If not, I will do it - I'd hate to overcorrect. This seemed like a pretty good Allied win and so I want to make sure the dice show Germany at something like.... minus -7 ish..
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Well I have this:
After Allied4
Eastern Front: -32.5 / -21
Atlantic/WA: -8.33 / +3
Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
Total: -45.89 / -32I have not calculated the net pieces, however I can still do that if you want.
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Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 1 artillery moved from Turkestan to Caucasus 1 armour moved from Moscow to Ukraine S.S.R. Russians take Belorussia from Germans Russians take Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans 1 armour moved from Moscow to East Poland Russians take East Poland from Germans 1 armour moved from Moscow to Baltic States Russians take Baltic States from Germans 2 armour moved from Moscow to Caucasus 1 fighter moved from Moscow to Caucasus Combat - Russians Battle in Caucasus Russians attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter Germans defend with 1 infantry Russians roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus Russians win, taking Caucasus from Germans with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia 1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Russia 1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 aaGun moved from Leningrad to Baltic States 1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Moscow Place Units - Russians 6 infantry placed in Moscow Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 24 PUs; end with 25 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : -0.33 Russians regular : 0.17 -
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - British British buy 5 artilleries and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; Combat Move - British 5 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 5 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 1 infantry moved from Eastern France to Netherlands-Belgium Combat - British Non Combat Move - British Place Units - British 5 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom Turn Complete - British British collect 38 PUs; end with 42 PUs -
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone to Greece Americans take Greece from Germans Combat - Americans Non Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 2 fighters moved from Moscow to Karelia 1 fighter moved from United States to United Kingdom 2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 3 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom Place Units - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Moscow: 2 armour EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Ukraine S.S.R.: 1 armour EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Belorussia: 1 armour EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 3 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 42 PUs; end with 47 PUsUSA6.tsvg I think Germans concede? Is there anyway to get out of that?
As for numbers, if you could crunch the first two turns only (for piece count). I can do it but I'm so strapped for time - If you can do it, great but dont worry about it if youre short on time. Lets get the next game going (two inf malta, two inf Ukraine). GG! THANK YOU
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Good Game, at this point the Germans are just confined to the defense of Berlin and with 4,5 times the income and 4 times the TUV, the Allies will bring this one home. As they should!
I am definitely not short on time. I'll crunch the numbers for the first two turns and let you know in a minute.
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G1
EF: -4.65
Atlantic: +0.93
Total: -3.72Allied1:
EF: -5.71
Atlantic: -1.09
Total: -6.80Allied2:
EF: -8.38
Atlantic: -1.36
Africa: +0.36
Total: -9.38 -
@victoryfirst yeah lets drop the infantry in Romania
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