#8: VF (Germans) vs. TGC (Allies) | Original Europe, no German SCA, one sub Bay of Biscay removed
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Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 fighters; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 2 fighters moved from Karelia to Germany 4 infantry moved from France to English Channel Sea Zone 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 3 destroyers moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Algeria to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya 1 bomber moved from Libya to Germany Combat - Americans Battle in Germany Americans attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 7 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 3 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 9 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/12 hits, 3.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 7 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 4/13 hits, 6.00 expected hits 4 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany 6 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 1/8 hits, 2.50 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters and 1 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 4.00 expected hits 3 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Germany, round 4 : 1/5 hits, 2.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 5 fighters in Germany, round 4 : 4/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Americans, 1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 artillery owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Germany Americans roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 5 fighters in Germany, round 5 : 3/5 hits, 3.33 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Germany 1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Germany Germans win with 4 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -32 Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 9 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 1 fighter and 7 infantry Non Combat Move - Americans Place Units - Americans 3 fighters placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 46 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Americans regular : -0.33 Germans AA : 0.50 Germans regular : -3.00USA5.tsvg never fear my curse is here. Your game - although Berlin was exposed at 85%.... I tend to agree that removing a piece on the east front feels right. Clean up in Moscow and then go again
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I believe you made a mistake during the UK turn. You edited the Russian transport to Danish Sea, added the tank to Denmark and then also used the tank to attack Berlin, as well as three UK fighters from Karelia that now have a landing spot in Denmark. However this is impossible because the UK tank loaded on the Russian TT on round 4, R5 the Russian TT moves, UK5 the tank unloads the same turn as the attack on Berlin happens -> Tank cannot participate as it just offloaded + Denmark was just captured and therefore doesn't provide a landing spot for the fighters.
Definitely no biggie as the Berlin battle went completely my way, but just pointing out the 85% isn't correct.However I think I made a mistake too when computing the final odds for a German win. I calculated the theoretical best odds for each battle, but if you go fully for one battle then that means some units won't be able to participate in the other. Therefore the final odds for a German win are different.
Allies attack Berlin on G5 (odds for German win)
Berlin: ~64% (and not to forget I can use some tanks from EPOL to recapture Berlin).
Moscow: 68%
Final odds: 43.5%Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
Moscow: 39.47%
Berlin: ~20%
Final odds: 8%So seeing this I believe you should have stacked up Moscow. I could probably use a couple of tanks to strengthen the defense of Berlin to bring up the final odds because a couple extra units have a big impact on the Berlin battle, while only causing a minor drop of odds on Moscow.
In any case 8% looks reasonable, much better than 25% which I previously calculated. Still I want to try the Romania thing to see if it makes the game more balanced or if makes it overshoot in the Allied favor.
EDIT In fact, stacking up Moscow would even be better than attacking Berlin on G5 even if you were able to bring in the extra tank and three fighters.
Berlin: ~ 10%-15%
Moscow: 96%
Final odds: 9.6%-14.4%
Of course, the Berlin battle has a lot of possible variety which makes the final odds hard to compute, but the (generous) 9,6% is still higher than the 8% -
So what I would suggest is redo your Allied turn because what happened wouldn't even be possible - and also because I am curious if the numbers tell the truth
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USA5.tsvg my bad, I did this recently in my game with Theo but he didn't retake the Netherlands so you are correct. The transport edit was just bc I forgot to move it during the Russian turn and I was trying to make sure there was no error in combat.
Here is what we are looking for - fire away:USA5.tsvg
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OK now I am going to try to maximize the final odds for a German win xD
Allies defend Moscow against G6 attack and attack Berlin on Round 6 (odds for German win)
Moscow: 39.47%
Berlin: ~30%
Final odds: 11.8%+1 tank Berlin / -1 tank Moscow
Moscow: 31.25%
Berlin: ~70%
Final odds: ~20% (21.9%)+2 tanks Berlin / -2 tanks Moscow
Moscow 22%
Berlin ~85%
Final odds: ~20% (18.7%)BTW you could have purchased an artillery instead of an infantry on the UK turn. Since you can load two artillery on a transport in this game, you could have had some extra combat factors, so that's why the first calculation in this post is different from the one a couple posts earlier, in that one I assumed you would buy 6 art and 4 inf.
In any case, it looks like +1 tank Berlin -1 tank Moscow is the best strategy. Let's see if I am lucky and can get 1 out of 5...
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TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 6
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 artillery and 11 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 16 armour, 8 artilleries and 44 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow 6 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow 1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow 1 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus Germans take Caucasus from Russians 1 armour moved from East Poland to Germany Combat - Germans Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry British defend with 2 armour, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 infantry; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 2 fighters; Russians defend with 2 aaGuns, 5 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 54 infantry Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 23/75 hits, 23,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 3 bombers, 6 fighters and 57 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 27/76 hits, 26,83 expected hits 27 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 19 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the British, 1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 17 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 16/48 hits, 18,50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 37 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 21/53 hits, 19,67 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 17 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 14 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 22 armour, 4 artilleries and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 4 : 7/27 hits, 13,00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 21 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 13/37 hits, 14,33 expected hits 4 artilleries owned by the Germans and 9 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 7 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 13 armour and 1 bomber in Moscow, round 5 : 9/14 hits, 7,17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 14 infantry in Moscow, round 5 : 15/30 hits, 12,00 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 13 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 9 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Russians win with 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 6 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -88 Casualties for Germans: 22 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 bomber and 44 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber and 49 infantry Casualties for British: 1 bomber and 3 infantry Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber Non Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 1 artillery and 11 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 3,17 Germans regular : -6,67 Russians AA : -0,17 -
This is most likely a GG, the Allies can finish the job
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@victoryfirst do you have the final numbers for how well or bad the Germans did in this game? If not, I will do it - I'd hate to overcorrect. This seemed like a pretty good Allied win and so I want to make sure the dice show Germany at something like.... minus -7 ish..
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Well I have this:
After Allied4
Eastern Front: -32.5 / -21
Atlantic/WA: -8.33 / +3
Africa/Med: -5.06 / -14
Total: -45.89 / -32I have not calculated the net pieces, however I can still do that if you want.
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Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 1 artillery moved from Turkestan to Caucasus 1 armour moved from Moscow to Ukraine S.S.R. Russians take Belorussia from Germans Russians take Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans 1 armour moved from Moscow to East Poland Russians take East Poland from Germans 1 armour moved from Moscow to Baltic States Russians take Baltic States from Germans 2 armour moved from Moscow to Caucasus 1 fighter moved from Moscow to Caucasus Combat - Russians Battle in Caucasus Russians attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter Germans defend with 1 infantry Russians roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus Russians win, taking Caucasus from Germans with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia 1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Russia 1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 aaGun moved from Leningrad to Baltic States 1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Moscow Place Units - Russians 6 infantry placed in Moscow Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 24 PUs; end with 25 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : -0.33 Russians regular : 0.17 -
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - British British buy 5 artilleries and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; Combat Move - British 5 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 5 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 1 infantry moved from Eastern France to Netherlands-Belgium Combat - British Non Combat Move - British Place Units - British 5 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom Turn Complete - British British collect 38 PUs; end with 42 PUs -
Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Central Mediterranean Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Central Mediterranean Sea Zone to Greece Americans take Greece from Germans Combat - Americans Non Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 2 fighters moved from Moscow to Karelia 1 fighter moved from United States to United Kingdom 2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 3 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom Place Units - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Moscow: 2 armour EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Ukraine S.S.R.: 1 armour EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Belorussia: 1 armour EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 3 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 42 PUs; end with 47 PUsUSA6.tsvg I think Germans concede? Is there anyway to get out of that?
As for numbers, if you could crunch the first two turns only (for piece count). I can do it but I'm so strapped for time - If you can do it, great but dont worry about it if youre short on time. Lets get the next game going (two inf malta, two inf Ukraine). GG! THANK YOU
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Good Game, at this point the Germans are just confined to the defense of Berlin and with 4,5 times the income and 4 times the TUV, the Allies will bring this one home. As they should!
I am definitely not short on time. I'll crunch the numbers for the first two turns and let you know in a minute.
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G1
EF: -4.65
Atlantic: +0.93
Total: -3.72Allied1:
EF: -5.71
Atlantic: -1.09
Total: -6.80Allied2:
EF: -8.38
Atlantic: -1.36
Africa: +0.36
Total: -9.38 -
@victoryfirst yeah lets drop the infantry in Romania
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