EXP G40 Game 3 Trout vs JCat
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YES YES YES YES
Comrade Trout wrote : "johnnycat Since it’s a test game you are welcome to redo it. But I had more planes, more tanks, two Tank Armies against your one also. So it was not the dice. Just a straight up victory where the odds were clearly on my side. I didn’t even do any arithmetic or battle calc because my eyeballs told me I would clearly win. Having said that, Berlin will definitely win if you attack Slovakia in your next turn"
THAT WAS EXACTLY THE POINT!
THANK YOU
That is what I need to understand because currently all I had to go on was that photo of the %18.6 odds..
I KNEW there had to be something that I am missing. Do you know what it was? Why that odds battle computer photo is incorrect.?
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I already have much respect for you JT
I sensed (or knew from earlier) that you were highly educated - again I look forward to chatting with you about life and stuff when we both have some time....
You wrote: " The battle calculator is spot on for simple battles but when tank armies etc enter the picture it implodes. Odds were actually well above 80% if not 90% for victory. I am actually decent in arithmetic so I sometimes just pull out pen and paper. Beelee prefers something more high tech so he does a few test battles before doing it for real."
That is exactly the issue. did you see my 18.6% map? Is that what you would see too and you know to ignore that and calculate manually?
I hold a M.S. in Applied Mathematics from the Universe of Illinois so I can add 3 +2 = 4 every time.
But you hit the correct nail ! So how do YOU calculate al this by hand ? Is there some procedure written up that I could follow?
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Gotta love it when Yoda makes a mistake...
BUT I AM STILL ASKING FOR THIS SIMPLE ISSUE:
Were I to have properly seen his actual attack as %86 or whatever and not the pathetic %18.6 my calc showed, WHAT FACTORY COULD I HAVE BUILT THERE?
How about we go back to the Brit turn so that @Trout can reassess that fireworks show?
And I will get to the answer of this factory building in Slovakia....
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@johnnycat My arithmetic solution is stunningly easy enough for a kindergarten student to understand. 4 tanks attacking each with factor of 3. So 4*3=12 right class? Then divide by six = two. So 4 tanks will average two hits. It ain’t more complicated than that
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@johnnycat Only one Tank Army active but the inactive one still had 5 tanks inside it right?
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@johnnycat Enough math class, I am going to bed now.
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You sir are a genius if you can look at this 58 units attacking those 55 units and factor in the extra rolls and such.
I am impressed.
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so I removed the 7 LMs from the Slovak attack and the odds go to 53% SSR
a coin flip but obviously greater than 18%
Edit
also triplea will count the AG Flag as a hit too. I will remove 1 Inf to represent that. It won't be 100% accurate but gets you a little closer.Up to 61% now
Edit 2
If you wanna go more in depth and some people do in the League at the other site, there are some online battle calcs that are discussed over there.It's not for me as triplea gets it close enough for what I do, but as you can see in the above, 1 dude can make a big difference in odds.
I've always just been kind of look at it and go and if not sure check the calc. Which has prevented me from doing some ill advised attacks
Edit 3
you can also click on ctrl-b for the TTy that is being attacked before any movement and then ctrl-a on the TTy it comes from and it will auto add those dudes to the calc.Still might need to tweak it a bit and I've never tried to add from multiple TTys but it's pretty handy as opposed to doing it by hand or playing the turn out
Edit 4
Also for LMs or NMs that don't have a specific unit for which border they are armed on, you should use the Comment Log saying which one they are at so it is easier to look up.I mention it in the game thread as well as putting it in the Log. But the Log is more important. Scrolling back through a game thread isn't as efficient if you don't remember what they are armed against.
It's also why I suggest using the color pattern in Game Notes.
Obviously doesn't matter at the end of the day, but it makes things more informative and hopefully easier to use.
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Good night gents.
I wish to DEEPLY THANK YOU, I’m certainly a difficult genius as my ex told me.
But I truly feel all these interruptions truly worth it !!!!
So let’s think on what to do and why this means so much to me… and to you I’d guess.
I recommend you start with a redo of UK 8 when the uk was planning a blow up show. But your call
🫡
