Middle Earth: Battle For Arda - Official Thread
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So something I am curious of in the development of this map is if there was an issue with IPC distribution in the sense that Evil's IPC are too concentrated inside of cities in the previous version a few years ago, why wasn't fanmade cities used? (I know lore accuracy but given this game isn't even accurate to begin with, I say it would have made sense)
Regardless, so personally good has an edge (not a large on but still one) My Gondor didn't even lose a single city and easily pushed Mordor back (ironically non-naval AI Harad was giving me more trouble in the late game). Moria is only a matter of if Lorien can hold an early game, once I was able to make ents it basically was over (maybe an early push to Rivendell can solve this for Moria.). I always felt Saruman was too defensive ngl, like even as a human player, you are basically on defense trying to outpace Rohan though Angmar has it probably the worst in this regard with it's low unit number early on (idk if it's been change or if I'm playing an older version)
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Has anyone played FFA using this map? Even if extremely unbalanced and slow, it's still fun seeing some of the stupid stuff that occurs. My favorite is, "Rohan, everyone's punching bag", "Mordors migration to Southern Gondor lmao", or the "Taiwan" Island of Tolfalas (literally only Gondor or Umbar can reach it so if either die then well
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Hi @rsnorunt
I'm curious about your statement that the Northmen will be radically damaged if they don't build boats in the Celduin on Turn 1. Could you (or anyone else) expound on that?
I'm playing on the old Battle for Arda map and am new to the map and the faction so I may be missing something obvious. But if Northmen just move their Dromund and raft to sz Celduin 2 (see picture), Rhun's 3 boats in sz Celduin 1 only have a 59% chance of victory at 0.8 tuv, which is not great odds. What am I missing?
What would be a good Turn 1 build for Northmen? Any help would be appreciated.
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@camelotkid I am not rsnorunt, but I will try to answer you as best as I can.
There are several things Northmen could do without buying ships, I will first address the Northmen move you showed and screenshot. You are correct about the battle odds you said, when I ran at at run count 20,000 (I usually use 2,000) it gave 59% and +0.86. Pretty much the same ones you gave.
That said there are issues with this move, it allows Rhun a relatively safe combat attempt without allowing Northmen the same. What do I mean by this? Well when you start a combat you aren't forced to finish it no matter what, the attacker has the choice to retreat while the defender doesn't.
So let's look at the round 1 situation. Rhun has 3 units, one with 2 HP, and has hit odds of 5/12, 1/12 and 1/12, meanwhile Northmen have hit odds of 5/12 and 3/12
Here we'll only look at Northmen's hit odd variations, of which they have 3, not hitting, hitting once, and hitting twice. Now if they don't hit, then regardless of whether Rhun hit or not, Rhun can simply continue the combat as it'd be the same situation as round 1 of combat (or better if Rhun hit). If they hit once, then Rhun can simply retreat, especially if they'd failed to hit on their attack, Rhun would take the one hit to its dromund, and then it would simply survive the battle with all 3 of its ships intact with no losses or downsides. (since damage to HP units is repaired instantly after the battle is done and the turn(not round) is over.
This leaves us with the outcome that actually spells consequences to Rhun's attack, if both defending Northmen ships hit. Now what are the chances of that happening? Well its easy to calculate, you just multiply both chances. So 3/12 x 5/12 gives us 5/48, or roughly 10.4%, you have a roughly one in ten chance of losing a 4 IPC raft.
Additionally, that's assuming you don't get at least two hits, using the battle calculator with 1 dromund and 2 rafts attacking against just 1 dromund (or 2 rafts, both work as long as defense is 2 hp) and setting it to retreat after 1 round, it shows me 7% chance of winning, so 7% chance of getting 2 or more hits. Meaning 93% chance of getting one hit or less.
So, if we multiply 10.4 with 93/100, we get 9.672. We have a roughly 9.7% chance in the default position(said position being round 1, and all future rounds as long as both sides miss) of the situation where both Rhun loses a raft and Northmen loses nothing.
Additionally, even if the 9.7% were to happen, the only consequences would be the loss of a 4 IPC raft, and Northmen does not have a favorable counter-attack as it'd be 33% and -3.8. (That said, I would still recommend Rhun have at least one raft cued up for purchase in this scenario). And while what I said about Rhun's attack can potentially apply to Northmen's counter attack, all the relevant odds would be worse (and even more significantly worse if Rhun cued up at least one raft for purchase).
Technically speaking, the opposite odds (of Rhun sinking a ship and Northmen sinking none) are less than 9.7%, they're actually 7 x 90/100 giving us 6.3%. However if that situation happens it'll be very bad for northmen as they won't just lose a raft, rhun will press the attack and very likely sink the dromund as well.
There's also the odds of Rhun getting at least one hit and Northmen getting no hits, (which sinks no units but advances the combat to Rhun's favor), it is 51 x 44/100 (also used battle calculator to get both numbers) giving us 22.44%. We have a 22.44% chance of moving from the default battle position to Rhun's favor.
Technically speaking, the opposite odds of that, (Northmen at least 1 hit and Rhun none) is 56 x 49/100 giving us 27.4% chance, however if that happens Rhun would simply take the one hit to its dromund and then retreat.
So, the three most likely outcomes of this attack are, Rhun loses a raft, neither side loses a unit, Northmen lose their entire fleet (at the cost of, at most, 2 Rhun rafts, provided it doesn't take risks)
This post got big enough already so I'll just post it and post the continuation in another post.
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@camelotkid To answer your other question, what would be a good Turn 1 for Northmen. I know you asked for build but I'll answer it a bit more broadly. There's much you can do but these are my recommendations.
If you wish to not build any ships, keep the Northmen fleet on sz 3. Rhun fleet would only be able to reach it with the dromund and while my logic for the poke still applies, the 10.4% would not be a chance to lose a raft, it would be a chance to lose a dromund.
Additionally the chance of 1 hit from Rhun and no hits from Northmen would be 18.2% instead. And even then, would transform the battle into a 31%/11%/58% win/draw/loss chance and -0.11
Any hit from Northmen at any point of the battle (except for when Northmen is down to a damaged dromund) transforms the fight either to a losing risky battle for Rhun, or an equal risky battle where both dromunds are damaged.
It's not my highest recommendation, but if you wish to build no boats at all, simply keep your ships at sz 3
If you are ok with building ships, then my recommendation is to build one dromund and save money. (how much money you save is up to your judgement). By doing this while you initially have less units on the board(and this will, admittedly, hurt initiative), you are banking your economy so that you can match Rhun naval energy. If they buy more ships you buy more ships. This way you avoid overbuying for the sea and neglecting land, as well as avoiding overbuying for the land and neglecting sea.
This gets more complicated if Rhun saves money as well for the same reasons. But in terms of openers buying at least one dromund and staying in sz 3 is my recommendation. Optionally I also recommend moving/buying a raft in sz 2 and/or buying a raft in sz Carnen
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@hero1000 Thank-you for your thorough reply! I hadn't considered that the Northmen move in the screenshot gives Rhun a relatively safe combat attempt since Rhun can just retreat if the battle goes ill. That makes sense.
I'm ok with Northmen building boats on Turn 1. If Northmen's goal is just to hold their side of the Celduin, though, would it be better to buy 3 rafts instead of 1 Dromund since they cost the same?
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@camelotkid You are correct, if the goal was just to hold sz 3 then 3 rafts would be better as they'd give 3 hp and three 3/12 instead of the 2 hp and one 5/12 the dromund would give.
That said, the reasons I recommend a dromund instead are, well firstly our objective(or rather, my recommended objective) is more than just protecting sz 3. The rafts kind of put pressure on sz 2 but not that much as they're worse on attack, and they put less pressure on sz1 and sz Carnen as they can't reach there. (Their best participation is moving into sz 2 as that's where dromund pokers retreat to after attacking 1 or Carnen)
Secondly, the dromunds are better attackers, this supports my first reason in putting pressure on even sz1 and sz Carnen as, for example, if Rhun doesn't buy ships and stays on 1 or Carnen, Northmen can attack with the two dromunds. It is worse overall odds than the example I previously went through, with 47% and -2.2 IPC. However given the same reasonings I outlined before, while at the absence of rafts the consequence of the defender rolling 3 hits is higher, the loss of a dromund, the chances of that are lower. 5/12 x 3/12 x 3/12 for roughly 2.6%. Where as the chances of 2 dromund hits (and Rhun losing 1 raft) are roughly 17.3%. It gets a bit more complex if less hits happen on both sides but generally speaking its worth it for Northmen to start the combat and see how the dice roll. (and then non-com their raft into sz 2)
This essentially forces Rhun to either buy more ships, move them to sz Rhun, or move a blocker sz 2. (And blockers can be somewhat partially unsafe as a result of Dwarf birds being able to take them out.)
The last reason is that dromunds are better for long term engagements. Rafts are significantly better in defense than in attack, and even then, if you go into the calculator and periodically add 1 attacking dromund and 3 defending rafts and put it at "retreat after 1 round", while at 1 vs 3 it'll be at -0.25 tuv roughly speaking. At 2 vs 6 it'll turn positive, and the more and more you add, the greater the positive of the avg tuv swing will get. With pure dromunds attacking pure rafts of equal value, you'll on average destroy a higher overall value of ships than you lose on pokes even if he loses rafts and you lose dromunds. (And he won't be able to counter-attack at equal value because rafts are poor attackers)
It gets a bit more complicated if its a mix of dromunds and rafts, but generally speaking, dromunds are better defenders than rafts in pokes, are worse defenders than rafts in all-in battles, and are better attackers than rafts in both, and move further than rafts. For the struggle of Celduin you get overall more value for your money building dromunds than rafts in most situations.
In my opinion the most primary benefit of rafts is that they can be built anywhere you started a turn with a coast. (and have no limit to how many rafts you can build there). So for example if you wanted to do a safe poke into sz 1 as Northmen (and have 2 dromunds but no rafts), but don't want to risk a counter attack in case you're forced to retreat without enemy losses, you can cue up a raft (or several, if necessary) and spawn them in sz 2.
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@camelotkid A few things of note. While technically if Northmen build more than 1 dromund Rhun is forced to build a matching (or likely larger) navy to hold position, Rhun is not forced to hold position due to being able to retreat to sz Rhun, allowing it to either bank money or invest in land units or do a mix both. Which is why I personally recommend just one dromund.
That said Northmen themselves instead have the advantage of safe blocking. While there are flier units from DG and potentially Angmar that can clear blockers, Northmen still go before Rhun after either of those factions clear the blocking units. (And orcs, who can go after Northmen and before Rhun, are too far)
Even then it is still easier for Northmen to lose the sea permanently than it is for Rhun, as they have nowhere to retreat to, if Rhun has enough combined navy and bank compared to Northmen navy and bank (and dwarf birds and bank), and decides its worth it, it can cash it all in and full attack sz 2 (in such a way that sz 2 is not counter-attackable) and then full attack sz 3. Northmen will suffer more from its mistakes than Rhun will on average, at least as far as the sea front is concerned.
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@camelotkid @Hero1000 did a pretty good job discussing how 2r1d from Rhun can 1r1d Northmen (I play low luck, so odds are ~5% higher), but I disagree with his buy recommendations. Here's my strategic analysis.
Generally Evil starts with a momentum advantage and an IPC disadvantage, and its main goal is to turn that momentum into territory before Good can build a big enough army to stop them.
The main way to do that for Rhun is to quickly take Dale and Rhovanion, but Rhovanion is long and Dale is behind the Iron Hills. If Rhun doesn't hold both regions by turn 3-4, Evil probably loses that front.
With boats, Rhun can take the riverbanks of Dale and Rhovanion as well as the Eastern Iron hills to act as a bridge for their cavalry to conquer a couple turns faster. They can also bring up siege units and infantry to threaten the halls of Gror and the capitols a few turns earlier.
Celduin 2 and Carnen are particularly good for Rhun because a 2-move dromund can move to Dorwinion and ferry units back every turn, saving at least a turn of move.
If Celduin 3 is open, Rhun can also threaten to send troops to the Long Marshes and attack the Elvenkings Halls, but this is usually a lategame worry, when one side has probably already won
The Northmen want to stop this.
The most basic move is to bring your fleet to Celduin 2 and build a raft there. This stops Rhun from being able to destroy your fleet or land in Rhovanion. In addition, if Rhun moves its fleet to the Carnen, you can move in behind them and kill any newly-produced ships or stop crucial resupplies.
If you didn't buy the raft and Rhun moves to Carnen, you'll only have a 77% chance to kill even a lone dromund, and if you lose the raft when doing so, you lose your fleet the next turn.
If you also buy a dromund, you threaten to kill Rhun's fleet the next turn. If also, there's a good chance they'll just give up, because they don't have the IPCs to match you. They'll just ferry everything they can to Carnen and take the East Iron Hills early, then die the next turn. If they don't give up, then they can't move their fleet so it's even better.
If you only buy the dromund, they might try the charge in hope of defeating you in detail. In fact, if they buy a dromund and a raft, they'll be in a good spot even if they get quite unlucky and retreat with both rafts lost and none taken.
You could also do the super aggressive move of buying raft fleets to defend both Celduin 2 and Carnen, which stops them from being able to bypass the Iron hills turn 1. But it's an expensive move (20-24 IPCs) and might cost you the Misty Mountains.
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@rsnorunt Thanks for your strategic analysis. I like the idea of moving the Northmen fleet to Celduin 2 and building a raft there. If you had to choose, would you buy a Dromund in addition to that move? Or would you be content with just buying a single raft in Celduin 2?
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@camelotkid Are you playing humans or AI?
If AI it doesn't really matter, but I'd err towards buying it since the AI has no idea how to use ships and you can chase him to the sea of Rhun.If human, it depends how Angmar/Saruman played and how you think Moria will, because buying a dromund means you're losing resources you could spend on the west. In most games I probably wouldn't, but if Angmar does something dumb or focuses hard on Arnor, or Saruman doesn't prepare for Tharbad capture then it could be a strong play.
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@rsnorunt I'm playing humans. I would definitely not have thought that Northmen decision-making would be affected by Saruman since they are so far away. Thanks for the insight.
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Hi all. I've played this map probably a dozen times or so with my friends, usually 1v1 but we have done ffas as well. Interested in knowing if, in this current version, there are some universally accepted "optimal" early plays, especially from good. I was intrigued by the Northmen / Rhun naval discussion earlier. My group has never paid much attention to the Naval situation on the Celduin, assuming any investment was a suboptimal investment of PUs, but now I am rethinking everything. Any thoughts welcome.
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@Ancalagon Well most of what I'd say about the Celduin sea would be disagreeing with rsnorunt and CamelotKid and retreading old ground, so I'll instead go over other stuff to be a bit fresh (though I wouldn't mind reopening that discussion if people want to). Though to be clear I am only on my second game so I'd say I have less experience than you have.
Not a good faction opening, but I have to mention this, both Mordor flying Nazguls attack the Gondor Dromund at sz lower Anduin 2. A sea controlling Harad is a strong Harad, especially one that could capture a Gondor city and start spawning units there.
Speaking of Gondor, while I can't say for certain how much it should invest at sea, and how much it should invest into land. I'd suggest a lot of its land investing should go into rangers for two primary reasons. The first reason is anti-air, not only does some rangers mean the flying Nazguls have less hp (and by extension, more units are lost), but if you have a high enough number of rangers that Nazguls have a decent change to die to anti-air alone, the opponent might elect to not have them in the battle at all, but that means they'd lose out on the leadership and terror flying Nazguls bring to the fight.
The second reason is mountain pressure, even with the fortresses on Mordor mountains, having enough rangers could complicate Mordor's defensive considerations to more than just putting big stacks in their cities. This is of course only relevant if Mordor is not pushing into or haven't taken Cair Andros and Osgiliath.
On that same note, if Angmar goes heavy into dragons, its neighbors can go heavier into anti-air units, except dwarves, if it looks like Angmar is preparing to melt Dwarven fortifications with dragon fire, Northmen might need to build and send its own anti-air unit to defend those.
I don't know a ton about it but there's argument for High Elves to invest into ocean ships so Gondor doesn't have to.
Dwarves and/or Northmen could consider having or making their catapults/trebuchets in their cities on the Rhun front to deter Rhun from parking their war wagons next to there. Even against an untouchable army stack, a single trebuchet doing a suicide attack is an average +7.5 TUV swing if said Rhun army stack has three or more war wagons. (+5.6 if two wagons, -2 if one wagon) and a single catapult suiciding is +4 if two wagons, +0.25 if one wagon. This does not apply if said army stack and war wagons are inside a city with fortifications
The more I say the more subjective it gets so I'll end it here for now. On an unrelated note, could I ask if you could invite me to your group? I know I am a complete stranger to you but I thought it wouldn't hurt to ask.
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Hey guys! When I play with AI, it seems to get pretty bogged down. (runs slowly) I've got a decent gaming laptop so it kind of surprised me. Is there anyway around this?
Thanks
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@hero1000 Thanks so much for this, I found this very helpful!
After some playtesting, I tend to agree that the overall it's not worth investing in the Celduin sea at any point as Northmen, especially if Rhun does not do so turn one. Assuming an active and agressive Angmar, the Northmen will be in dire need of every land unit they can get their hands on.
One thing that I have noticed in my current 1v1 game is that if the Orcs commit completely turn one to taking Rivendell, there is almost no viable strategy for the elves to keep it by turn two (though they can do a strategic retreat to both threaten Rivendell later on and/or cause Angmar issues).
Anyhow, love this thread and appreciate your response.
The next time my group does a free for all, I'll be sure to send you a dm! It might not be for a bit but I suspect we will do so later in the year.
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@quack_89 Are you using "fast AI"? I also have a decent laptop and encounted the same issue when playing any other type of AI.
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Hey there, is the version "v2.1.x" still the one to download or is it "master"?
I hope progress is good and the beta test can be completed soon! Soon-ish at least :D. Balancing can always be done afterwards in mini-patches imho. There will always be stuff to balance in a map this complex. My group would love to play a stable version of the updated map. We just finished another round and were looking up the status of the next release.
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@shorogyth
Alkexr was online over a year ago
You might want to give this map a go, whilst he works on his massive update?
https://forums.triplea-game.org/topic/3729/middle-earth-3rd-age-official-threadAlkexr has been very generous in granting me permission to use his current Battle for Arda map. It is similar to his but it has been Doggy-fied
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@thedog Hi there, thanks for the reply
I took a look at your version but it has upkeep as a mechanic and I think that is not "fun" to have in a game. Did not like it, when WarCraft3 did it and try to avoid it whenever possible.
Little feedback otherwise:
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The symbols (crown, skull, ...) should only be visible when I buy a unit. They look a bit ugly on the map. Imho. But the idea is good/helpful to learn the rules.
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I could not get the map to work at first. I had to unzip it first. This has not been the case for any other TripleA map (when I first downloaded TripleA eons ago I did unzip my maps but nowadays I don't)
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You might want to edit the "wrong" terrain for the caves north of Goblin Town. This was/is broken in Arda as well.
Other than that: I like what you did with the unit balance and I liked the simplification for the rule (I still like the Arda complexity but yours is a good version as well). All in all, the stuff I saw while testing it looked good. Not for me because of the upkeep but good variant!
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