New dice server
@captainsquareyez honestly, the action you are outlining is a bit hard to follow seems like you are picking certain battles that had bad outcomes. to truly demonstrate a problem i think you'd have to give enough complete rounds of results (for both sides) to show that you're consistently getting results that different from what would be expected.
expected hits gives you the number of hits expected so in the first example the 2 armour give 1 (1/2 each), the fighter and 3 of your infantry give you the second 1 for a total of 2, the last remaining infantry gives you the .17 remainder (1/6).
@captainsquareyez also, would be helpful if you can share your dice stats screen that gives you the total results of all dice rolls for any game.
@captainsquareyez reality is streaky oftentimes. a single bad battle can in some cases decide a game.
TheDog last edited by TheDog
If the map/scenario supports Low Luck try that in the Map Options.
@thedog tried it, thats even worse again, seems to favor defender even more
@ubernaut yeah, again, fair enough, a game every now and then, yeah sure. But just about every game? No, i dont think so. Out of a dozen games, i have lost nearly all of them due to your so called "bad battles". Again, look at the posts. Guess you didnt even look though,right? Not unless you sped read thru pages worth of rolls and games.
But i get it, you are set in your ways that is absolutely nothing wrong with the dice. You ask for evidence and quickly dismiss it. Keep your broken dice. Im done! A good developer listens to their community. You tell us to show evidence, and you quickly dismiss it.
@captainsquareyez Pointing out flaws in statistics requires large data sets. That means 100s and 1000s of examples. 20 examples can just be variation.
One should also keep in mind it's more important to look at deviation from the expected rolls than the exact roll. For example, you might expect 6 hits, but only get 4, the odds of a -2 or worse could be quite good. If you compute the odds of exactly 4 hits, it's a misleading probability. That's one key, the odds that are more interesting is that many hits or fewer, not just that many hits.
Another thing to keep in mind is that conditional probably is not intuitive. The probability tree could depend significantly on initial outcomes that have higher probability than the total. AA is a good example, there might be 100 possible outcomes in a battle with 90 going for the attacker and 10 going for the defender. Now, if the AA hits, then the subtree that remains has perhaps 12 branches, with 9 of those going for the defender and 3 for the attacker. So while the initial odds were 90% for the attacker, if the AA hits then suddenly the battle is a 25%, and on the flip side if the AA misses then it's probably a 98% battle. So that 90% is misleading, it's actually a 1/6 chance that you'll get a battle where the defender is overwhelming likely to win, that is twice as likely as a 10% chance would have you think. So in part, the problem is remaining in battles where the initial rolls are against you, it flips the odds and then remaining in the battle is an expected loss.
With all that said, the source code is open, MARTI uses the mersenne-twister algorithm to generate random numbers.
@lafayette The one thing i think you are missing, is i keep mentioning how it keeps happening. zero hits or 1 hit back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. But, dont listen, dont care anymore. A game is not fun when you keep losing due to bad throws constantly. But, theres absolutley nothing wrong with these dodgy dice!
Edit, just to be clear i have managed to win a couple of games, but they seem to be rare due to the dice keep giving me cruddy outcomes.
@captainsquareyez That's the game, it depends heavily on dice. I can give you examples where in real world dice I got unbelievably bad odds and had runs of games where I "lost" due to that.
Are the dice actually "dodgy", seemingly not as much as you describe, but perhaps are to some extent, it's unclear. One also cannot rule out confirmation bias from the examples given. Notably, how about all the other battles where you got really decent dice? Then when it counts, the battles you really want to win, instead you had the more variable dice rolls there.
Overall, constructive criticism and research is welcome. Bitching about a run of 3 bad games is not helpful. GL, sorry you are feeling frustrated with the dice.
@lafayette Bitching huh? Nice. The arrogance is really shining through now.
I WAS giving you constructive criticism, but seems like i am talking to walls that dont want to hear me. Hows that for bitching? As for good throws, i dont think i have had any worthy of talking about as they all seem to be frustrating, all misses or 1 hit, on the rare occasion i might get lucky and 2 hits IF i have 10 units there.
If you want to start throwing insults, go for it, i can throw em back too though and i wont care if i get banned. As an admin, u should know better than to say something like that to the community.
@captainsquareyez Before you edited your comment, you said "whatever, I don't care anymore". I don't know how to view that as constructive dialog or a continuation of the analysis of where deficiencies and improvements could be made. Given these are stats and we are talking about randomness, anecdotal examples don't prove much one way or another. It could even be that you are the lucky lottery ticket winner to have the worst TripleA dice out of all, but that does not mean the dice are dodgy.
You mentioned that the dice seem to favor the defender. That is not possible as a systematic bias considering the dice rolls are requested blind to whom it is for. There cannot therefore be a bias towards attacker vs defender, AI vs human, instead it would just so happen that one or the other received the better rolls when requested.
Kindwind last edited by
I have been busy with work. Our 1st step is find out what these values are:
Normal 1 d 6 distribution patterns.
I found the average roll to be: 3.5
what is the median roll of 1 d 6
I found the median roll to also be: 3.5
what is the median roll of 1 d 6
Standard Variance to be: 105/36 or 2.916
Standard Deviation: I am looking for still. Could some look these up?
After these values are found we can hire a programer to add the dice server. A buddy of mine has some comp. sci. degree folks that can help us out. I doubt it will cost more than 100. Adding button and a 1 d 6 standard dice model should be easy to do.
@kindwind everytime i have looked the dice stats for d6 based map it has been pretty close to 3.5