@johnnycat
so I removed the 7 LMs from the Slovak attack and the odds go to 53% SSR

a coin flip but obviously greater than 18% 

Edit
also triplea will count the AG Flag as a hit too. I will remove 1 Inf to represent that. It won't be 100% accurate but gets you a little closer.
Up to 61% now

Edit 2
If you wanna go more in depth and some people do in the League at the other site, there are some online battle calcs that are discussed over there.
It's not for me as triplea gets it close enough for what I do, but as you can see in the above, 1 dude can make a big difference in odds.
I've always just been kind of look at it and go and if not sure check the calc. Which has prevented me from doing some ill advised attacks 
Edit 3
you can also click on ctrl-b for the TTy that is being attacked before any movement and then ctrl-a on the TTy it comes from and it will auto add those dudes to the calc.
Still might need to tweak it a bit and I've never tried to add from multiple TTys but it's pretty handy as opposed to doing it by hand or playing the turn out
Edit 4
Also for LMs or NMs that don't have a specific unit for which border they are armed on, you should use the Comment Log saying which one they are at so it is easier to look up.
I mention it in the game thread as well as putting it in the Log. But the Log is more important. Scrolling back through a game thread isn't as efficient if you don't remember what they are armed against.
It's also why I suggest using the color pattern in Game Notes.
Obviously doesn't matter at the end of the day, but it makes things more informative and hopefully easier to use.