@elreigh
Best guess 'Sea Zone' ownership. Water territories do not have ownership, give 'SZ Sea of Japan' an 'originalOwner' option in its 'territoryAttachment' and use 'alliedPresenceTerritories' in the trigger.
Also check the property:
<property name="Use Triggers" value="true" editable="false"> <boolean/> </property>Hope this helps
Cheers...