@rogercooper
It has some understanding, but not a complete understanding; from what I've been able to tell. It does, at least partly, recognize the movement bonuses units will get in terms of avoiding counterattacks, though I'm not sure it does so fully.
In terms of strategic bombing, I'm not sure to what extent it specifically targets harbors/airfields that are relevant right now, vs simply targetting anything in the area that's raidable that it's not already invading. (and of course bombers often have regular combats worth doing as well).
It does not seem to preferentially move units on/next to harbors/airfields so as to get the movement bonus.
I was trying out Global recently, and some of the moves quite clearly showed the ai not 'getting' the impacts of those bases.